Breakout

2019年2月24日

The total crypto cap index broke out of resistances on rallying volume, against daily and weekly divergences in RSI and momentum, with DMI and ADX over 25. It will probably fade out a bit next week, perhaps consolidating under the red line but the bulls are now undeniably in control.

I'd say the bear market is already over. Granted I don't see a parabolic bull stampede right now, but BTC is going to close a green monthly candle for the first time in half a year; people will start noticing. Then it's likely it will triple its valuation before May 2020 (3rd halvening approx. date), but of course it's too early to make semiaccurate predictions. Only time will tell :^)

2021年3月9日

註釋

"Then it'll likely triple its valuation before May 2020" boy, was that a spot on call! Everything going as planned, in between the two kind of trajectories I had outlined in february 2019 when BTC was $3970. I don't see too much risk of reversal for now until we approach the high part of the log trend channel at $95-105k approx which may be a local top for a couple months to let the monthly RSI breathe down a bit (standing at 90 as I write this). I don't think that will be the absolute top of this run because of the round 100k number (like 10k was last run); I expect to eventually overcome the area and head towards 310-315k around year's end although I realise it sounds like pie in the sky right now. That would mean the future bear market would bottom out at current levels around ~$48k (after the typical almost 85% retracement) and x2.5 levels of previous cycle top which is a reasonable extrapolation from the 2015-2017 run. Only time will tell :^)