Cryptocurrency - At A Crossroads...
已更新
Reposting this just as the historic Ethereum Merge gets underway. (Original post from July was removed)
Since the March 20 low when the market cap was a measly 91 Billion, the crypto space added a whopping $2.7 Trillion before topping out in November 2021, an impressive 2700% jump.
The market has since corrected 74% to the tune of $2.25 trillion. We are now testing 2018 highs along with the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
We could also see that the space found support at the 0.382 during the 2018 correction.
The market cap has travelled in this ascending channel for about 5 years, it has now reached the critical red dashed trendline, you will notice that it tends to act aggressively here.
Price initially found some resistance before breaking through in November 2017. In August the following year, it failed as support and a 60% drop followed.
The trendline then proved to be resistance with a firm rejection in July 2019, price finally broke through in January 2021 before going on to make new all time highs.
Another crucial support being testing is the Simple Moving Average (Blue Line), we could see that price found support here during the 2018 bear market low,
& once again during the March 20 sell off. Should the SMA act as resistance, we may tread the bottom channel for some time.
Should the SMA, trendline & the 0.382 hail to hold, the 0.5 Fibonacci lines up nicely with the bottom support trendline, this is about a 50% drop from current levels. (My Ideal Load Up Zone)
If we look at the correction that took place in 2018, a similar 88% plunge will place us right at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. (Reload Zone)
On the flip side, should price action remain in this ascending channel, the bottom trendline will line up with 0.382 in January 2024.
It also marks a similar duration between the 2018 top & March 20 lows.
Over the last 18 months, it has certainly paid to be a US dollar bull, whilst everything else has fallen to pieces (it seems).
With its largest interest-rate increase in 28 years, the hawkish Federal Reserve signalled a strong determination to fight inflation, even if it ultimately takes a toll on the economy.
This has undoubtedly affected cryptocurrency. Despite Bitcoin's inflation hedge narrative, a speculative asset class was never going to be spared.
“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Back in July, the Fear & Greed Index had broken the record for uninterrupted extreme fear.
The index had been in a range of extremely negative sentiment for a record 72 days.
The extremely negative sentiment had been in place since BTC collapsed from the $38,000 level on May 5.
Today, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index sits @ 27/100, narrowly avoiding extreme fear levels.
Are the bulls ready to turn the tide? Or will the bears continue the assault & send us to the abyss?
With PI Cycle theory flashing a bottom, market ripe with fear, miner + retail capitulation, calls for BTC to hit 0, market oversold with RSI+MFI @ record lows, tether dominance showing weakness, in my humble opinion - its time to DCA into positions.
There is no doubt, an interesting few years is upon us.
Good Luck!
Speculative Setup, DYOR.
Since the March 20 low when the market cap was a measly 91 Billion, the crypto space added a whopping $2.7 Trillion before topping out in November 2021, an impressive 2700% jump.
The market has since corrected 74% to the tune of $2.25 trillion. We are now testing 2018 highs along with the 0.382 Fibonacci level.
We could also see that the space found support at the 0.382 during the 2018 correction.
The market cap has travelled in this ascending channel for about 5 years, it has now reached the critical red dashed trendline, you will notice that it tends to act aggressively here.
Price initially found some resistance before breaking through in November 2017. In August the following year, it failed as support and a 60% drop followed.
The trendline then proved to be resistance with a firm rejection in July 2019, price finally broke through in January 2021 before going on to make new all time highs.
Another crucial support being testing is the Simple Moving Average (Blue Line), we could see that price found support here during the 2018 bear market low,
& once again during the March 20 sell off. Should the SMA act as resistance, we may tread the bottom channel for some time.
Should the SMA, trendline & the 0.382 hail to hold, the 0.5 Fibonacci lines up nicely with the bottom support trendline, this is about a 50% drop from current levels. (My Ideal Load Up Zone)
If we look at the correction that took place in 2018, a similar 88% plunge will place us right at the 0.618 Fibonacci level. (Reload Zone)
On the flip side, should price action remain in this ascending channel, the bottom trendline will line up with 0.382 in January 2024.
It also marks a similar duration between the 2018 top & March 20 lows.
Over the last 18 months, it has certainly paid to be a US dollar bull, whilst everything else has fallen to pieces (it seems).
With its largest interest-rate increase in 28 years, the hawkish Federal Reserve signalled a strong determination to fight inflation, even if it ultimately takes a toll on the economy.
This has undoubtedly affected cryptocurrency. Despite Bitcoin's inflation hedge narrative, a speculative asset class was never going to be spared.
“Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Back in July, the Fear & Greed Index had broken the record for uninterrupted extreme fear.
The index had been in a range of extremely negative sentiment for a record 72 days.
The extremely negative sentiment had been in place since BTC collapsed from the $38,000 level on May 5.
Today, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index sits @ 27/100, narrowly avoiding extreme fear levels.
Are the bulls ready to turn the tide? Or will the bears continue the assault & send us to the abyss?
With PI Cycle theory flashing a bottom, market ripe with fear, miner + retail capitulation, calls for BTC to hit 0, market oversold with RSI+MFI @ record lows, tether dominance showing weakness, in my humble opinion - its time to DCA into positions.
There is no doubt, an interesting few years is upon us.
Good Luck!
Speculative Setup, DYOR.
註釋
Price bounces around the 0.382 level but is rejected at the red dashed trendline.The SMA then provided support just as it did during the 2018/2020 lows along with 5 oscillators printing divergence.
The crypto space has added an impressive 1.1 trillion since the November 22 lows and now finds itself at the 0.65 Fibonacci level. Its the same level that stalled the failed rally in 2019. A rejection from this level could see us tread the bottom channel, potentially a good area to reaccumulate. Should the bulls overcome the 0.65 / red dashed trendline, they will set their sights on the 0.786 level and beyond. RSI is looking healthy printing HH's + HL's however its at similar levels during the 2019 rejection.
Good luck!
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