CRYPTO week ahead: September 5 – 11

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Last week in the news

The US equity market continued modest decline during the previous week, following solid US job market data which are adding to the probability that the FED will continue to hike interest rates. Crypto market continues to move in a relatively low range due to the same reason. Bitcoin is ending another week around the $20K support line; Ether continues to be supported by the forthcoming fork.

The US jobs market added additional 315K jobs in August, as official data show. At the same time, average hourly earnings were up by 5.2% y/y, while the unemployment rate reached 3.7%. There is, however, one tricky part in the August job report, which shows that full time jobs fell by 242K, while part time jobs increased by 434K. This might be due to a seasonal effect, while it also might point that there are general changes on the US jobs market. Investors perceive these data as a signal that the FED would most probably continue to increase interest rates further, since increased wages and jobs in the US would push inflation to the higher ground.
In an interview with CNBC, a University professor Joseph Stiglitz expressed his concerns that aggressive rate hikes by the FED might have a negative effect on the economy, and might even further support inflation increase in the US. He also commented on recent data on the US jobs market, noting that real wages are not going up, but when adjusted for inflation, they actually are going down.

The upgrade of the Cardano network, called Vasil, is officially scheduled to take place on September 22nd , as announced by the Input Output development lab. The main purpose of this fork is to reduce transaction costs. This news supported the price of ADA on Fridays and Saturday`s trading, moving it up by 1% higher.
During the week there has been some positive news for Algorand network, as FIFA announced that it will launch a NFT collection for its 2022 Qatar World cup. These NFT`s will be launched to remember the best moments of this tournament like best goals, celebrations, etc., on Algorand network.

The International Monetary Fund commented on ongoing plans of central banks in the world for introduction of digital currencies with a call for the IMF to develop a central system which will be used for international transfers, where costs of these transfers will be significantly decreased. As per IMF research, there are currently a total of 97 countries which are in different phases of introduction of their own CBDC`s.

Crypto market cap

After last week's FED Chair Powell speech at a conference at Jackson Hole, markets continued to trade in a relatively calm mode, in anticipation of further FED`s move in bringing the inflation to targeted 2%. Latest posted macro figures are showing that the jobs market continues to grow, however, economists are pointing to a possibly tricky part of the figures. Namely, full time jobs are dropping in the US, while August figures were driven by an increase in part-time jobs. During the previous week , the crypto market was traded relatively flat compared to the week before. Crypto market capitalization was increased by $11B or 1%, mostly driven by Ether and altcoins. Daily trading volumes were also flat, moving around $109B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.232B, which is a total drop of 56%.

Last week`s increase in total crypto market capitalization of 1% was led by Ether and altcoins, while Bitcoin did not perform within the green zone. Ether continues to be supported by the forthcoming Merge fork, which pushed coin`s market cap to the upside by additional $9B or 5% on a weekly basis. There are several altcoins which performed well during the week, supported by fundamentals around them. News regarding the forthcoming Vasil fork in September, supported an increase in Cardano`s market cap by more than $1B or 7.7% w/w. Another altcoin with good performance was Polygon, which increased its total market value by 13%. There are several coins which finished the week in red territory. Most important here is Bitcoin, who finished the week by $4B less in market value, which is a decrease by 1% w/w. As for total circulating coins, Uniswap had an weekly increase by 13% of coins in circulation, while Polygon`s increase was by 2.4%.

Crypto futures market

During the previous week Ether outperformed Bitcoin not only on a spot market, but also on futures market. Namely, as per reports from the futures market, trading with Ether futures has significantly increased lately, as investors are creating trading strategies around forthcoming Merge fork. Current participation of Ether futures in the total futures trading, currently stands at 57%.

ETH short term futures were traded higher during the week by some 1.1% on average, from a week before. At the same time, BTC futures were traded down by more than 3%. As for longer periods, the situation is relatively the same for both coins, as they were traded down by around 10%. BTC futures ending in December this year have dropped below $20K for the first time since July this year. ETH futures for the same period continue to hold above $1.5K.

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