Where is Crypto Going❓ Let's Take a Look👀
After a weekend typified by extreme amounts of FUD, looks like the lights have started to shine through the clouds and have illuminated that crypto does indeed still exist. But for how long? Are we going back to 10k? Will everyone lose their life savings - AGAIN. Let's look.
But first, let's discuss the whole dump thing to get some context. It seems at this point it was at least somewhat a market manipulation event, with a lot of the initial cascade of BTC sold all at once to start it being collected over the weeks prior in small amounts. Would not surprise me if this was meant to coincide with the china ban (yeah again, and it still works! crazy!) in order to really get the gears going.
Anyway a bunch of retailers panicked, not helped by the lot of folks online shouting it's the start of the bear season we're all gonna be poor from every mountain top.
Honestly - if you were one of these people going around to your chat rooms spreading FUD you have nobody to blame for the market crash but yourself as you were a part of the problem.
Now, surprise, everyone is pro crypto and FOMO'ing back into the market. Really can't make this shit up.
Enough about this madness let's look at some weekly candles to ease our mind.
BITCOIN
BTC is holding on to a fairly firm EMA 50 weekly support, but of course we want to be above our 21 so if we can't rectify that situation ASAP we're looking at a short term bull trap or accumulation for quite a bit.
I believe my earlier prediction on this ultimately being quite bullish for alts still stands despite the retrace being sharper than expected - still within the boundaries. find that below:
RSI is in a great place for more growth, though TD9 is showing we could see more consolidation at this level or downside before the big reversal.
BITCOIN DOMINANCE
I use this chart as my road map for bullruns, as it works really really well. I suspect we're not done the bullrun as BTC.D still has a lot of cycle left to complete it seems.
We saw a Dead Cat Bounce I suspect back up to the channel we previously broke down out of, retracements are expected ultimately and the stopping point is crucial - here we can see that the retracement stopped right where we should see it stop for continued movement down. Remember, BTC.D dropping gives us alt season, we want this bastard to drop.
I suspect the floor around the 30-40% range, which gives us a good amount of market cap still to flood into the alts especially if money comes back into the market en masse.
When this completes it's movement downward I suspect we will be done with the bullrun for real.
TOTAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION
We stopped in our liquidity area from January, which is quite interesting from a technical perspective. Retracements are expected to stop in the liquidity area if you're expecting it to continue the movement afterwards, it seems that because the climb was so big, the retracement was likewise quite dramatic, but given the current stopping level I believe there's a good chance of continued a big bounce up from here.
TOTAL 2 - MARKET CAP EXCL. BTC (ALT CAP)
This is where things get interesting to me. While the market capitalization itself retrace to january levels, we see clearly by this and BTC.D that the alts has the same general movement of retracement, but to a much higher level than we saw in January. This further adds to my speculation that the bull run is not over, especially for the alt coins.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
If you bought this dip I think you're probably going to make a killing, at least in the short to mid term. If stock to flow is to be believe we could see BTC hit 100k or 200k+ if you're using STFX. After this point we could see up to an 80% retracement in the overall market, bringing us back down to the 20k level for a brief spell before normalizing.
The takeaway if we have more money to make here before we have to really worry, and those who hodl'd through the blood and bought the dip should see their testicular fortitude payoff soon. That said, make sure we're taking profit on this wave - Once we're done this leg it could be a while before we get another chance, though this leg could conceivably last in to early next year.
But first, let's discuss the whole dump thing to get some context. It seems at this point it was at least somewhat a market manipulation event, with a lot of the initial cascade of BTC sold all at once to start it being collected over the weeks prior in small amounts. Would not surprise me if this was meant to coincide with the china ban (yeah again, and it still works! crazy!) in order to really get the gears going.
Anyway a bunch of retailers panicked, not helped by the lot of folks online shouting it's the start of the bear season we're all gonna be poor from every mountain top.
Honestly - if you were one of these people going around to your chat rooms spreading FUD you have nobody to blame for the market crash but yourself as you were a part of the problem.
Now, surprise, everyone is pro crypto and FOMO'ing back into the market. Really can't make this shit up.
Enough about this madness let's look at some weekly candles to ease our mind.
BITCOIN
BTC is holding on to a fairly firm EMA 50 weekly support, but of course we want to be above our 21 so if we can't rectify that situation ASAP we're looking at a short term bull trap or accumulation for quite a bit.
I believe my earlier prediction on this ultimately being quite bullish for alts still stands despite the retrace being sharper than expected - still within the boundaries. find that below:
RSI is in a great place for more growth, though TD9 is showing we could see more consolidation at this level or downside before the big reversal.
BITCOIN DOMINANCE
I use this chart as my road map for bullruns, as it works really really well. I suspect we're not done the bullrun as BTC.D still has a lot of cycle left to complete it seems.
We saw a Dead Cat Bounce I suspect back up to the channel we previously broke down out of, retracements are expected ultimately and the stopping point is crucial - here we can see that the retracement stopped right where we should see it stop for continued movement down. Remember, BTC.D dropping gives us alt season, we want this bastard to drop.
I suspect the floor around the 30-40% range, which gives us a good amount of market cap still to flood into the alts especially if money comes back into the market en masse.
When this completes it's movement downward I suspect we will be done with the bullrun for real.
TOTAL MARKET CAPITALIZATION
We stopped in our liquidity area from January, which is quite interesting from a technical perspective. Retracements are expected to stop in the liquidity area if you're expecting it to continue the movement afterwards, it seems that because the climb was so big, the retracement was likewise quite dramatic, but given the current stopping level I believe there's a good chance of continued a big bounce up from here.
TOTAL 2 - MARKET CAP EXCL. BTC (ALT CAP)
This is where things get interesting to me. While the market capitalization itself retrace to january levels, we see clearly by this and BTC.D that the alts has the same general movement of retracement, but to a much higher level than we saw in January. This further adds to my speculation that the bull run is not over, especially for the alt coins.
OVERALL THOUGHTS
If you bought this dip I think you're probably going to make a killing, at least in the short to mid term. If stock to flow is to be believe we could see BTC hit 100k or 200k+ if you're using STFX. After this point we could see up to an 80% retracement in the overall market, bringing us back down to the 20k level for a brief spell before normalizing.
The takeaway if we have more money to make here before we have to really worry, and those who hodl'd through the blood and bought the dip should see their testicular fortitude payoff soon. That said, make sure we're taking profit on this wave - Once we're done this leg it could be a while before we get another chance, though this leg could conceivably last in to early next year.
Come hang out with me on telegram, it's free and I won't be too mean too mean to you:
t.me/KadnimCrypto
t.me/KadnimCrypto
相關出版品
免責聲明
這些資訊和出版物並不意味著也不構成TradingView提供或認可的金融、投資、交易或其他類型的意見或建議。請在使用條款閱讀更多資訊。