Tesla - Once in a lifetime buy?

2019年6月8日

TSLA

First, let's start with a little context. Elon called his shot in 2015, $700 billion by 2025. He's currently 4+ years in and way ahead of schedule ($36.5 billion). I'm not going to bet against a billionaire. Tesla needs 50% YOY increase in revenue and he's maintaining 60% YOY. Obviously there are other factors at play, but that is a positive sign.

From the TA side of things, I'm seeing a pattern here. Hit ATH, retest 3 times, massive correction, followed by insane run through the 5th retest. We're currently in the massive correction phase, and I think the insane run is coming shortly (short is relative, no pun intended). We just bounced off a 6 year trend line. Similar behavior was witnessed in 2016.

This leads me to believe that IF we break upwards, passed the 211 support level, it's time to load up that position all the way to 389, with a small period of consolidation around 290. We could see this as early as October/November this year. Q2 results appear to be on track for another Q4 repeat based on leaked emails. China will probably come online earlier than anticipated. TSLAQ was made to look like a bunch of idiots with GF3, and I think the trend of TSLAQ looking like idiots will continue in the same uptrend as TSLA's stock.

I absolutely love that the fib levels align to show us the infamous 420 level as the next target for all time highs. Start loading up now, keep stops at 175. If we break low, we're in big trouble. I don't see this happening, however. The short thesis of no demand was recently demolished. GF3 skepticism was demolished. Truck reveal will probably happen late summer or early fall. Roadster, Semi, Y coming in 2020. There is no competition. Every competitor's "Tesla Killer" is falling short of the 2012 Model S, and there are rumors that 400+ miles are coming for the S and X. Good luck everybody else.

2019年7月17日

交易進行

Added to my position at 250. Uptrend is looking solid and earnings are coming up.

They don't have a huge payment to eat on these earnings, they delivered a record number of cars. I don't see any scenario where they don't beat on earnings and wreck shorts.