Tesla Inverse Head & Shoulders - An Alternate Perspective
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Tesla is currently not part of the S&P500 Index. One of the inclusion criteria for the S&P 500 is that:
“The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter.”
Tesla hasn’t met this test yet but it is on its path to be included in the S&P500 Index in the coming months. The company was profitable in the third and fourth quarter of 2019 after losses in the first two quarters of 2019. The market expects a small loss in the 1Q2020 followed by profits in the quarters ahead. Therefore; market participants expect inclusion in the S&P500 Index by the end of 2020 or early 2021.
In early April 2020 Tesla announced that in 1Q2020 despite the COVID-19 crisis it had managed to deliver 88,400 vehicles to its customers. It smashed all analyst forecasts for the 1Q2020 deliveries. The stock has since moved from $440~ levels to a high of $780 and now currently trades at $690. It seems that the market is expecting a positive quarter for Tesla and expects inclusion in the S&P Index earlier than their previous estimations.
Tesla trading pattern over the last few months seems to indicate the above and have formed an Inverse Heads and Shoulders pattern. A breakout of its recent highs targets a run to $1,232~ or a return of 78.5% over the current price. The expected price also sits nicely with the 1.414x Fibonacci retracement of the February high ($969) to recent lows ($351).
Can Tesla post a profitable 1Q2020 quarter and will it run towards the new highs; it remains to be seen.
I'm long Tesla. I wrote the above myself and the comments express my own opinions.
“The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter.”
Tesla hasn’t met this test yet but it is on its path to be included in the S&P500 Index in the coming months. The company was profitable in the third and fourth quarter of 2019 after losses in the first two quarters of 2019. The market expects a small loss in the 1Q2020 followed by profits in the quarters ahead. Therefore; market participants expect inclusion in the S&P500 Index by the end of 2020 or early 2021.
In early April 2020 Tesla announced that in 1Q2020 despite the COVID-19 crisis it had managed to deliver 88,400 vehicles to its customers. It smashed all analyst forecasts for the 1Q2020 deliveries. The stock has since moved from $440~ levels to a high of $780 and now currently trades at $690. It seems that the market is expecting a positive quarter for Tesla and expects inclusion in the S&P Index earlier than their previous estimations.
Tesla trading pattern over the last few months seems to indicate the above and have formed an Inverse Heads and Shoulders pattern. A breakout of its recent highs targets a run to $1,232~ or a return of 78.5% over the current price. The expected price also sits nicely with the 1.414x Fibonacci retracement of the February high ($969) to recent lows ($351).
Can Tesla post a profitable 1Q2020 quarter and will it run towards the new highs; it remains to be seen.
I'm long Tesla. I wrote the above myself and the comments express my own opinions.
評論
Tesla announced a surprise profit when the announced their results for 1Q2020. Since then Tesla has had a wild ride but the IHS continues to remain in play. 1.. It broke through the resistance to make a lower high
2.. Then it came crashing down to retest the bottom of the shoulder. However; it did not exceed it.
3.. It has since broken through the resistance again to retest the highs
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