看多

#TSLA: Likely bottomed and is about to rally over 1k

已更新

I'm long for a few days already, and it is coiling for a massive move up in my opinion, as many fundamental catalysts are lining up in the coming weeks and months. I can see a resumption of the big uptrend that kicked in after basing during late 2019. Sentiment has turned pretty grim as the stock corrected and lagged , and investors seemed pessimistic regarding Elon's foray into crypto, as well as prospects for China sales, and Model Y sales in Europe, as new competition arrives in the market in droves. The thing is, competition is actually far behind in range and specs, and has a solid lead for the most part despite the bears' insistence on pointing out the risks in the bull case. Things will start falling into place going into the next quarterly report, and after we hear the deliveries number soon.

It has been a long time since I could recommend buying into with this level of conviction, but I think the time to be positioned is now, specially considering the pivot away from value stocks and inflation bets that is causing tidal waves in the macro picture now, since FOMC last week. I'm looking forward to announcing having sold their position in the next report, as well as keen on seeing what the up coming AI day event has in store for the stock.

Best of luck,
Cheers.

Ivan Labrie.

註釋

Biweekly timeframe now triggered a signal, was expecting this if the daily acted strong as it suggested it could.

註釋

Daily signal here indicates $764 in the cards. Long term view didn't change, FSD v9 beta news were well received as videos popping show impressive performance from driving around in various circumstances, like dodging random kids crossing the street, or cars stopping out of nowhere...The new Model Y had a rapid flurry of orders in China too and is a strategic decision that will prove smart since it frees up capacity to produce the more expensive models in Fremont (the Chinese made cheaper Model Y has a different battery and helps ease shortage of certain components required to build the other versions in the US). Similar to Feb 2019 imo...Sales will skyrocket for it.

註釋

(not from a price chart perspective, but regarding the strategy to maneuver availability of materials required to produce the cars, and future growth of sales and deliveries)

註釋

is certainly the cheapest mega cap stock.

But, it doesn't come without volatility...The lack of PR has allowed competitors to attack the stock regularly, but over time the fundamental story pays off.

註釋

Notice the green volume bar here, higher volume and bigger range than the previous daily bar now. Bulls are stepping in, and dealt with sell pressure so far. This could have legs to go to $764+ by the 23rd, which would make my long term forecast way more probable.

手動結束交易

This action is really damn bad, broad market risk is high now. I'm moving to cash.

註釋

As much as I like the fundamental story in , it isn't immune to macro conditions. If the stock market has already topped, it won't do well. It might outperform periodically, and might surge on earnings, but it won't be easy to hold forever and expect profits right away. Downside tolerance would have to be too big...I'm sidestepping and observing, keen on buying after a crash for sure, similarly to how I bought it after the COVID crash bottomed.

註釋

I bot back a while ago, now back to where I got in recently.

If you're not in, this might be a good entry, maybe enter between today and tomorrow.

交易進行

註釋

AI day was highly interesting, prospect for autonomy and hardware to be big contributors to 's revenue in the future became apparent. Analyst's didn't quite grasp it but implications are huge. 's lead is very big, now let's see how the Berlin Gigafactory launch affects price action...

I'm holding, we got a solid setup in the short term now, and chances of triggering a monthly trend signal.

註釋

twitter.com/garyblack00/status/1428788261590274048?s=20

註釋

Good progress here.

註釋

So far, so good. The initial expectation was not validated, pace wise but it is coiling for a big move up and way higher than entry here...
A monthly signal could trigger during October, the seeds are there.

註釋

If we hit $827 ish before September ends, we got a confirmed monthly uptrend:

註釋

It's on! Monthly signal confirmed.

註釋

I will scoop some weeklies for Friday, before the report, they are priced VERY cheap, and if the stock gaps up, we could get a big squeeze, and see the calls jump up by 24x or so (if the move is similar to Oct 2019)

註釋

Biden's administration is clearly a disgrace, very biased and pro unions, now adding insult to injury appointing a TSLAQ member and LIDAR company board of directors member as an NHTSA advisor...There's a petition being signed to try and stop this madness: chng.it/9CQzgYqrkL
Screw that nonsense.

註釋

The earnings report was a huge success, we are on track for a massive move. Analysts already started updating their targets and forward EPS projections.

註釋

交易結束：目標達成

I'm out.

I suspect it could have peaked long term, weekly trend can turn down, index charts are problematic, same as fundamental developments. Big rotation under way, isn't safe to park your money in, despite its wonderful growth.

交易進行

twitter.com/ivan_labrie/status/1481292230388326404?s=20

I bot back, around 1085 ish. New daily uptrend signal here could reignite the monthly trend soon.

手動結束交易

註釋

Daily trend expired, it was a relief rally in a bear market trend, the same happened in and SPY.

Long term, this will likely go sideways/down, not worth it to hold long term but could give us plenty of trading setups with wide volatile swings up and down.
I'm currently short via , which holds a substantial amount of , it is a better thing to short in general, due to the way they manage the rebalancing and allocation...Historically, they underperformed , and will continue to do so even if it falls. (Heck, you could short 1:1 vs long and come out ahead)

註釋