$TWTR bounce from retest? (4/5)

2021年12月22日

Conviction: 4/5
could have another leg down to complete bullish RSI-W divergence


General Thesis

• breakout and retest from downward resistance line (2014)
  
• Weekly RSI at oversold levels - ALTHOUGH could have another leg down to complete bullish divergence
  
• 200WMA as support?
  
• c-leg down at 100% of a leg down
  

Growth

• Margins are high, although came down a bit since 2019
  
• revenue growth trending up, about average
  

Value

• P/FCF expensive, coming down in 2021
  
• P/S about average
  

Fundamentals & Balance Sheet

• low debt to asset (<1)
  
• good quick ratio (4)
  

Potential Risks

• expensive P/FCF
  
• data does not contain last recession
  
• another leg down for bullish divergence?
  
• can continue to hug downtrend
  

2022年1月12日

註釋

both RSI-D and RSI-W showing bullish divergence!

2022年1月21日

註釋

Closed position, weekly close below support.

Will wait for entry at lower support.