7/10/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
TXG
Small swing, mid $15s
- Illumina buying Fluent matters
- Have been skeptical of financials onTXG for some time (and it's a Cathie owned name which has kept me even more discerning)
- Still have a tough time justifying valuation mainly bc cash burner and product seems to be inferior to other names + margin dilution from this competition
- ASSUMING (let's not make an A** friend) this R&D is still somewhat useful, this stock would be a pretty clear buy near the $15 level
- WE REMAIN in a risk off environment for non-mega caps (I've written extensively about this) and essentially you don't get paid to neck out unless YOU KNOW something better than the market or the cash-return valuation is super rich and it's sucking mainly b/c it's a small size company (factor issue)
- SO THAT SAID, this co is NOT in my sphere of competence so i'm only swinging a small trade here and will monitor it
- I'd LOVE thoughts from anyone w a more nuanced POV
For reference i'm posting my private comment (prior to when i started airing out my thought laundry) for a take-look at sub $20.
V
--
5/6/24 - vrockstar - looking again here and just can't come around to owning this on the surface financials. while there's a small bend in trend on the sales level vs. last year, they're still burning cash (albeit not as much), and a lot of that "help" on the FCF line is stock comp (which in a lower for longer stock is not really cash b/c these sales will dump stock lower - so it's a matter of reclassifying it in terms of stock performance). Anyway, for MSD growth "then" inflecting to 15% in '25 - and not profitable - would probably require a market mutliple of AT MOST 4x today - and we're in the high 4's even at stock lows here. I think 2.5x is appropriate to take another look, but willing to entertain if/as we get to 3x which on $670 - would be a pretty hefty discount here - let's just say 30% starting stakes which would take us easily below 20. That's my "look again trigger".
TXGSmall swing, mid $15s
- Illumina buying Fluent matters
- Have been skeptical of financials on
TXG for some time (and it's a Cathie owned name which has kept me even more discerning)- Still have a tough time justifying valuation mainly bc cash burner and product seems to be inferior to other names + margin dilution from this competition
- ASSUMING (let's not make an A** friend) this R&D is still somewhat useful, this stock would be a pretty clear buy near the $15 level
- WE REMAIN in a risk off environment for non-mega caps (I've written extensively about this) and essentially you don't get paid to neck out unless YOU KNOW something better than the market or the cash-return valuation is super rich and it's sucking mainly b/c it's a small size company (factor issue)
- SO THAT SAID, this co is NOT in my sphere of competence so i'm only swinging a small trade here and will monitor it
- I'd LOVE thoughts from anyone w a more nuanced POV
For reference i'm posting my private comment (prior to when i started airing out my thought laundry) for a take-look at sub $20.
V
--
5/6/24 - vrockstar - looking again here and just can't come around to owning this on the surface financials. while there's a small bend in trend on the sales level vs. last year, they're still burning cash (albeit not as much), and a lot of that "help" on the FCF line is stock comp (which in a lower for longer stock is not really cash b/c these sales will dump stock lower - so it's a matter of reclassifying it in terms of stock performance). Anyway, for MSD growth "then" inflecting to 15% in '25 - and not profitable - would probably require a market mutliple of AT MOST 4x today - and we're in the high 4's even at stock lows here. I think 2.5x is appropriate to take another look, but willing to entertain if/as we get to 3x which on $670 - would be a pretty hefty discount here - let's just say 30% starting stakes which would take us easily below 20. That's my "look again trigger".
交易結束：目標達成
took profits near $16.8 for 8% swing. no need to overstay my welcome in this name that's not my core competency. worked out in conjunction w the oversold lower cap/ equal weight stuff which is what i've been commenting on lately (and wrote up 
IWM) last night. no idea how much is left here. would only revisit if we dip back into $15s
enjoy
V
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