Uptrend Channel has formed in ULBI

2019年12月4日

I originally bought a small position in this stock around $7.50 as price was breaking out of a short consolidation pattern in early 2018. Price had previously made quick tops around that level in late 2010 and late 2015, so I thought the consolidation was encouraging and price broke out nicely from that level. I failed to sell however, thinking there was more in store based on past price history where you can see it was able to make some nice moves quickly. I continue to hold and have since noticed an uptrend channel. I am encouraged by recent action as price quietly touches the bottom of the uptrend line and have added to my initial position and am hoping for a quick move up to around $13. If price can get up to that level I would consider selling half of my position to take a nice short-term profit. One of these times I expect price to breakout of the uptrend channel, either up or down, as people like myself catch on to the trend. That's why I would only sell half of my position in hoping that price would breakout of the channel to the upside and I don't want to miss that eventual move. I think it's more likely to breakout up than down based on price action and price history. But if it breaks down, it could be a shakeout, but it would also be a pretty bad sign. Anyway, if price breaks down, I would probably continue to hold hoping that it's a shakeout, unless it fails to hold the most recent low from late 2018 then I would probably get out and move on. I just feel it has more in it than what it's done so far from where I originally bought. If it continues to move up and down within this channel I would continue to sell half my position when it gets to the top of the channel and buy back more when it gets to the bottom, trying to make nice intermediate term profits along the way up as that is the trend of price on a long-term chart, until the market tells us it's not anymore.

I haven't looked into the fundamentals at all, this is just a simple observation of a chart pattern that could certainly turn out to be false. Please look into and decide for yourself and invest at your own risk.

2020年1月1日

註釋

A monthly close below the bottom of the channel is a bad sign. It could just be a shakeout, but that level around $7 needs to hold. I wasn't too worried about price breaking below the channel initially but a monthly close is another story, the pattern is likely over. That is the risk with purchasing at the bottom of the channel. I will continue to hold but if support doesn't hold around $7 on a monthly close I will probably get out and invest my money elsewhere, unless it has a big down month and I don't get out in time.

2020年2月3日

註釋

I am exiting this trade, I know it's right at important support/resistance level and could potentially hold right around this level, but the uptrend channel has clearly broken down and I don't want to hope it holds here. I'm going to take my money and have it available for another trade I like when that stock hits a certain price.