One Last Crypto Purge

Crypto has been on a general down-trend the last couple of days. In the last hour or two we've seen a temporary increase in the cryptos I've looked at but I'm not seeing volume to support the uptrend. In particular, I've been following UNFI in particular (main chart) and it looks like there's some buy/sell algorithms oscillating generally between the hour chart Bollinger bands. In it's last rise from 5.8 to 6.2 there have only been a couple hundred shares sold. I'm monitoring trades on this but I think conservatively it'll go down to 5.1 and possibly ~4.6 once the algorithm triggers a sell off.

One final point to justify my bearish position on UNFI: On March 19th at 0:00 UTC, the last time we were at the current price, 10k shares sold off (I'm guessing someone that decided to get out before it fell more). The last 2 full hours saw 484 and 87 shares change hands respectively. No one wants to buy this at 6.2. I think we are seeing an active bull trap as institutions try to offload shares before one final sell-off and reversal. Like I said earlier, I think computer algorithms are keeping these prices from tanking, but once they realize no one is buying, crypto will do one last fall.

For reference I've also put BRICK on the chart, which is one of the few cryptos I've found that's been particularly bullish over the last few days. Even if it might go up to where it was a few days ago, I wouldn't personally touch this one with a 9 foot pole for potential downside risk. Most of the cryptos I've looked at have pretty similar charts with increasing price in the last hour but no volume to support the move (SBR, SGB, POLIS, MULTI, etc). EWT had some bigger volume amounts and might also be worth researching.

註釋

One last thing I forgot to mention on UNFI: last night I tried my hand at some stop hunting and was able to bring the price down to 5.619 from the previous hour end at 5.736. In this ~2.5% drop I triggered only one stop loss of about 20 shares. Any other stop losses must be lower than 5.619 or were added in the last 15 hours or so. Being the first time I've tried this as a strategy, I'm not sure to how useful that information is, but I think the low amount of stop losses triggered in a 2.5% range offers some further merit to the bearish argument here.

註釋

One more update: Prices have still remained steady around 6.2. That being, said, there were a few high volume trades (or sum of small trades that made it high volume, however you choose to see it). Looking at 4 hour candlesticks, March 24 8:00-20:00 UTC we see ~18000 shares traded compared to March 18 16:00-March 19 4:00 UTC with about 22k shares traded. However, on the 18-19, the price dropped from a high of 7.256 to 6.008 (a 20.5% decrease) compared to a range of 6.414 to 6.082 (a 5.17% decrease) for the later volume spike traded. Furthermore, the majority of the shares for the second instance were traded in a smaller range over the first 8 hours, that's just peak to peak for the 12 hours for consistent time range comparisons. I think its resistance to going further up past this point with that amount of volume traded is further evidence that another fall is soon to happen. Maybe I'm wrong and we'll see a huge spike soon, but I'm still bearish on this.

註釋

I apologize if anyone following UNFI is getting spammed with notifications. I just wanted to add one final guess here. If there is a heavy amount of bots trading Bollinger bands as I suspect, then I think the 4 hour cross above the upper band could be a trigger. This band is still at 6.5 but has seen heavy contraction in the last day. It's position relative to the 1 day chart bands makes me think it may be a slower sell off than originally anticipated.

註釋

200 shares traded at 6.068, then 200 shares traded at 6.128 about 2 hours later. This has been the most significant activity in the last 12 hours. I'm guessing this was a day trade and otherwise there is virtually no trades happening right now.

註釋

another spike of 16.7k shares just traded. This time the trading range was only 5.977 and 6.054 (1.27% difference). This conjoined with my comment 3 comments ago paints a picture of declining triangle if we look at these 3 volume spikes. Our peak range is decreasing similar to a descending triangle (The shape looks a little funky because of the trading bot attempts to use the moving average), but if we focus mainly on the volume peaks (7.25 to 6.008, 6.4 to 6.08 and 5.977 to 6.054) where the trades are happening are occurring in a descending triangle indicating lack of interest in pushing the price further up.

註釋

Last update for now I swear, with regards to this volume peak, it occurred about 30 minutes before the UTC end of day, which would have otherwise shown an abysmal volume. I suspect this is someone already holding that's trying to hang on to the sinking ship. I'll sound silly if I'm wrong but I really think this has a far way to fall.

註釋

small correction (and then the last comment for a while :)) it is 1.5 hours until end of day UTC. I still think my earlier claim is valid in light of this.

seanfrancispotempa