Massive US Unemployment Move Inbound

On the UNRATE dataset, we can see that since 1953, every time the unemployment rate make a significant move above the 24 months SMA, with the sole exception of October '67, we saw a large spike in unemployment allong with a recession.

Currently, UNRATE rose above the 24 months SMA in August 2023 and has been stochastically moving higher ever since. Historically, this means that we can expect an aggressive move in unemployment in the following months.