The US30Y yield has only gone in one direction for the last 30+ years, down.
Using the TradingView monthly price history, the US30Y yield peaked in Oct 1987 at 10.234%.
Every successive period has seen lower highs on the US30Y yield. The most recent peak in Oct 2018 was at 3.466%.
Using Fibonacci analysis, the successively lower highs from the Oct'87 peak have all respected key Fibonacci levels on the way down.
The falling trend line from Oct'87 to Oct'18 would imply that the next high will be at or below the next key 0.236 Fibonacci level.
You will notice on my chart that I have placed the bottom of the Fibonacci sequence analysis at a level that has never been reached before.
I chose this 0.059% level based on the 0.618 retracement of the Oct'18 peak (3.466%) to the Mar'20 low (0.812%) is 2.452%. This would align the long-term 0.236 level with the Golden Ratio at 0.618 for the most recent retracement from the Oct'18 peak (3.466%) to the Mar'20 low (0.812%).
You could call this 'fun with Fibonacci numbers' but when I look at the 30+ year trend, it is hard to foresee a scenario where we don't continue to see lower highs on the US30Y yield, and this long-term trend remaining in place.
I am happy to hear any feedback.
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