USDCAD Rally Hits Critical Resistance – Time for a Short?

USDCAD has surged in October, but multiple confluences suggest a short-term selling opportunity is emerging. Let's break down the charts.


Starting with the weekly charts, we can see that USDCAD has been in a long-term range-bound market between 1.39 and 1.32, with price consistently respecting this range over the past two years. I've marked another key resistance area at 1.375 in red, which has also held strong multiple times in recent years.





This is the first confluence. The second confluence becomes clear when we zoom into the daily charts. Lining up perfectly with the weekly resistance at 1.375 is the 0.618 fib level from the down leg that started in August (see image below).





Now, taking a closer look at the 4-hour charts, the price is extremely overextended and overbought. When price action reaches this point, especially as it approaches key higher timeframe resistance zones like we are now, a reversal is usually imminent.





Given these confluences, a selling opportunity seems highly likely. With the US CPI data being released today, we could see a spike above 1.375 towards 1.38, followed by a sell-off.


Here’s how I plan to approach this: I’ll wait until after the news. If there’s a sharp spike above the mentioned resistance areas, I’ll fade the move on the first SELL signal from the lower timeframes using my TRFX indicator.


If there’s no spike and price continues to grind up, I’ll be watching for a 30-minute or 1-hour sell signal and will enter the market accordingly.


My first target for this setup is 1.36, with a stop loss around 1.383, depending on where I enter.


Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!