Price marked an outside-weekly reversal off key support last week with USD/CAD rallying more than 1.9% off the lows. The advance is now testing initial resistance hurdles at 1.3962/97- a region defined by the 52-week moving average, the 2022 swing high, and the 23.6% retracement of the yearly range.
The immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark with key resistance eyed just higher at the 38.2% retracement near 1.4150. Note that the March channel line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low as registered last week / a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives seen at the high-week close (HWC) at 1.4292 and the 2025 yearly open at 1.4383.
Initial weekly support rests at the 1.39-hande with key support unchanged at 1.3729/95- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 advance and the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance. A break / weekly close below this pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated declines with initial support objectives seen at 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement at 1.3504/23.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has responded to confluent uptrend support with the recovery now testing initial resistance- risk for possible price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 1.39-handle IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this pivo zone needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
-MB
The immediate focus is on a reaction off this mark with key resistance eyed just higher at the 38.2% retracement near 1.4150. Note that the March channel line converges on this threshold over the next few weeks and a breach / close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low as registered last week / a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives seen at the high-week close (HWC) at 1.4292 and the 2025 yearly open at 1.4383.
Initial weekly support rests at the 1.39-hande with key support unchanged at 1.3729/95- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2021 advance and the 61.8% retracement of the late-2023 advance. A break / weekly close below this pivot zone would threaten another bout of accelerated declines with initial support objectives seen at 1.618% extension of the February decline / 78.6% retracement at 1.3504/23.
Bottom line: USD/CAD has responded to confluent uptrend support with the recovery now testing initial resistance- risk for possible price inflection here. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to the 1.39-handle IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above this pivo zone needed to fuel the next leg of the advance. Watch the weekly closes for guidance here.
-MB
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