USD/CAD 15-Minute Time Frame (15TF) Technical & Fundamental Anal

USD/CAD 15-Minute Time Frame (15TF) Technical & Fundamental Analysis

The Bank of Canada (BoC) recently held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75%, providing temporary support to the Canadian dollar (CAD). This decision pushed the loonie to an eight-month high as markets interpreted it as a sign of cautious optimism from the BoC.

However, recent data paints a more mixed picture. Weak May retail sales and cooling labor market figures have raised expectations for a possible rate cut later this year, which could weigh heavily on the CAD if confirmed. This divergence in short-term strength and longer-term concern is currently shaping the USD/CAD price action.

Technical Outlook:

USD/CAD has fallen to fresh weekly lows around 1.3626–1.3630, following a breakout above a key level at 1.3680, which was immediately followed by Accumulation and liquidity sweep below that breakout zone.

After hunting stop-losses, price is now pulling back and preparing for potential distribution, as smart money behavior appears to be unfolding.

A limit buy setup is forming at the area of reaccumulation.

📊 Trade Setup
📍 Area of Interest (AOI): 1.36390 (Buy Limit Order)
🛡 Stop-Loss: 1.36300 (Below liquidity grab)
🎯 Take Profit: 1.36680 (Next minor resistance / ~1:2.5 RR)

This trade idea is supported by institutional patterns — breakout, liquidity grab, and reaccumulation — which suggest a bullish continuation move if structure holds.

📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.