USDCHF Forming Bullish Wave

USDCHF is currently positioned in a consolidating range after a recent rebound, as buyers appear to test the breakout zone around 0.8030-0.8200. The technical structure suggests that if price can hold above the upper boundary of the recent consolidation, we could see a bullish push toward 0.8350 and possibly extend to 0.8400. Until then, watch for signs of exhaustion or a break below 0.8030, which could invalidate the bullish case and open a retest of lower support near 0.7900.

On the fundamental front, the U.S. dollar remains relatively firm thanks to resilient labor market data and the Federal Reserve indicating that it may keep interest rates elevated for longer if inflation remains sticky. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc, which traditionally strengthens during global uncertainty, is under pressure as the Swiss National Bank contemplates policy moves in the face of sluggish domestic growth and deflationary risks. The divergence in monetary paths—firm U.S. rates vs. cautious Swiss policy—supports a bullish edge for USDCHF.

That said, risk remains skewed to the downside if global risk sentiment shifts or the franc’s safe-haven status becomes dominant again. Upcoming Swiss inflation or SNB commentary could trigger surprise moves. For now, the setup favors continuation, but confirmation is key: a clean breakout above 0.8200 with follow-through would underpin the bullish scenario, while a failure to hold above support would elevate the risk of a deeper pullback toward the 0.7900 zone.