July 5th USDCHF - King of the King

2023年7月5日

Among all currencies, CHF is probably the best one to short for. Some might believe it would be JPY or CNH, but I do think there might be government/central bank intervention soon which might terminate the depreciation trend.

However, CHF was definitely one of the best currencies for longing during the early half of the year 2023, as they are dealing extremely well with inflation. The recent inflation once again shows Switzerland is pretty much all set with its inflation target, now sitting at 1.7%.

As a country with a long-time low-interest rate, I am not claiming they would lower their rate in the September meeting. What I am believing is that other major countries/regions cannot solve the inflation issue like Switzerland in the short term, and the interest rate difference can be pushed higher which forces Franc to depreciate.

I do believe the economic level data would determine the strength of the currency, and trend analysis is more for the short term. So, I would focus more on the longing opportunity for USDCHF, and at this moment, I do believe it has a huge potential to go up.