USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus

USDCHF – Awaiting Breakout Ahead of FOMC: Key Levels in Focus

📌 MARKET OVERVIEW

USDCHF is currently consolidating within a tight range after a technical rebound from the 0.8226 support zone. The price is testing a confluence area at the descending trendline and the 200 EMA on the H2 chart, indicating indecision between bulls and bears as we head into the high-impact FOMC event.

🔍 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – H2 CHART

Overall Trend: Sideways corrective move within a broader downtrend channel. Price is approaching critical resistance at the EMA200 and the channel’s upper boundary.

EMAs in focus: EMA13 (black), EMA34 (orange), EMA89 (red).

Fibonacci Retracement: Price is hovering around the 0.5 fib zone (0.8298), a neutral level for potential reaction.

🎯 Key Levels & Trade Scenarios:

Major Resistance Zone: 0.8330 – 0.8368 → aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and previous structural high.

Key Support Zone: 0.8226 → strong demand area. A break below this could expose deeper downside or set up a false break trap.

📌 Most Likely Path:

Price could dip back to 0.8226 before launching a bullish recovery targeting 0.8330 – 0.8368.

A clean breakout above 0.8368 with momentum and volume could invalidate the bearish bias and shift the trend mid-term.

🌍 MACRO & FUNDAMENTAL CONTEXT

FOMC IN FOCUS: The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady at the upcoming meeting. However, market attention will be on Powell’s tone. A hawkish stance could fuel further USD strength, propelling USDCHF toward resistance zones.

SNB (Swiss National Bank) maintains a neutral tone with slight disinflationary concerns, offering limited support for the CHF and strengthening the USDCHF upside case.

US Treasury Yields are showing signs of recovery, adding bullish pressure to USD pairs.

📌 TRADING STRATEGY:

Watch for bullish reaction at 0.8226 – potential long setup if RSI divergence appears.

Short-term targets: 0.8330 → 0.8368.

Breakout Strategy: If price clears 0.8368 with conviction, shift bias to bullish continuation and monitor for FVG or trendline breakout alignment.

📣 Stay sharp for increased volatility around FOMC. Position sizing and discipline are key in macro-heavy weeks like this.