Draghi vs. Yellen – EURUSD wins
EURUSD will be the key player today, as the market awaits for any new hints on monetary policy stance from Draghi and Yellen in Jackson Hole.
For now the basic scenario is the following:
1. The Fed confirms the balance sheet changes are coming soon.
2. The ECB will give no hints on the terms of QE tapering, meaning announcement at September meeting is not a done deal.
This is practically priced in, and initial selling of EURUSD won't last long. In a couple of hours the pair may recover all the losses.
However, during this week we got more hawkish comments from various ECB officials starting with Schauble who said the central bank should tighten policy sooner rather than later, and ending with Weidmann saying he “sees no acute need to extend QE into 2018.”
If Draghi turns out just a little bit more optimistic on economy stance and a little bit more hawkish on monetary policy that will be enough to trigger broad-based buying of EUR.
In this case EURUSD may sharply jump higher to 1.1890, and show some attempts to break it. if succeeded, the next target is at 1.1960.
For now the basic scenario is the following:
1. The Fed confirms the balance sheet changes are coming soon.
2. The ECB will give no hints on the terms of QE tapering, meaning announcement at September meeting is not a done deal.
This is practically priced in, and initial selling of EURUSD won't last long. In a couple of hours the pair may recover all the losses.
However, during this week we got more hawkish comments from various ECB officials starting with Schauble who said the central bank should tighten policy sooner rather than later, and ending with Weidmann saying he “sees no acute need to extend QE into 2018.”
If Draghi turns out just a little bit more optimistic on economy stance and a little bit more hawkish on monetary policy that will be enough to trigger broad-based buying of EUR.
In this case EURUSD may sharply jump higher to 1.1890, and show some attempts to break it. if succeeded, the next target is at 1.1960.
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