USDINR-Currency View

The pair moved in a range of 81.20-82.76 during last week. Break above 81.80 which held for three weeks triggered sudden spike to next resistance at 82.75. While the monthly candle is still in progress, it appears that the pair may make one more attempt of the trend line resistance at 83.30. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 81.20. We can expect supply around the closer resistance at 81.80. We are witnessing demand driven by lower crude and outstanding unhedged exposure getting covered. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.20 and 83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

• The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82
  We may not see a runaway in DXY. The 105-106 range is yet another crucial price point and we may see further fall to 102.
  The full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair
  The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-82.70
  The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue
  

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal and not connected to SYFX Treasury Foundation. The views are for learning and reference purpose only.