SteveNixon
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Channel Break Out?

FX:USDJPY   美元 / 日圓
891 11 45
Guys I was looking for a short trade to the bottom of the channel. It doesn't look like that's going to happen as price seems to have broken out of the channel. Let's see what type of correction it makes. If it's shallow we might get a nice long set up but if it's sharp we may have to wait for it to complete before finding a safe long entry point. Either way I'm only looking for a long trade.

I'll update my analysis as price develops so remember to follow to receive them. You can also follow updates via twitter (link from my TV profile)

Always wait for an entry set up before risking your money.

This is not investment advice - it is purely for educational and discussion purposes.
Your Ideas, comments and questions welcome

Good luck Steve
評論: Let's see how this develops
評論: Still waiting for a breakout of this correction. I suspect it will bounce around here for a while but place an alarm on the breakout line so you don't miss any long move
評論: Expanding flat?
評論: This correction is developing nicely. I may go lower but I've put an alarm on the upper trend line so I can catch any breakout long.
評論: "It may go lower" not "I may go lower"
評論: Another opportunity to emphasise why we wait for the correct set up before opening a trade. I was waiting for a long trade set up here but it didn't meet my rules so I'm not in the trade. What happened next - look at the chart if dramatically went in the opposite direction. This is where traders lose money - despite the correct looking structure for a long price reversed - if you are not sure or your rules have not been met - stay out of the trade.
評論: So where are we now with this and why did it not go long after a "breakout" This is difficult to show on a static chart because chart analysis is dynamic but if we zoom out a little bit we'll see that the price is still in a correction and is going down for one more wave before presumably going long again. It will not proceed in a straight line but it is highly probable that it will descend to the channel bottom.
評論: OK this looks like we are getting a correction before completion of the wave down. ie 3 wave and we are currently in wave 2 I'm looking for a break and short trade set up

This chart is finished for me - I'll post a new forecast next week
評論: For clarity 3 wave means a three wave move down. So we're looking for the 3rd wave of three and we are currently in the 2nd wave of three
評論: We've had a break out short = wait for a correction before entering
i dont agree as Still we have convergence on MACD it can come down
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@Prabhatt, It's very easy to not agree a month after the chart was posted and you can see where price has moved to. Please keep your analysis to current charts where they may actually mean something.
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It makes fourth wave now. It may drop to 107.30 if it starts fifth wave.
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SteveNixon saylikubac
@saylikubac, You could be right - price could go all the way back down for a 5th wave - we'll just have to wait a see what it does. The structure will give us a clue once it starts to move down. Is it a correction, a flag or a 5th wave. We'll know soon
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maksheetal SteveNixon
@SteveNixon, Thanks for the update Steve. How do you tell the difference between a correction and a flag? I struggle to identify them. Thanks again.
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SteveNixon maksheetal
@maksheetal, They're both corrections. A flag tends to be a short lived shallow or sideways correction of the latest move up. (it looks like a flag on a pole) When I refer to a correction I mean a correction of the complete move which is often deep and long lasting. Hope this helps
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maksheetal SteveNixon
@SteveNixon, Thanks Steve. That makes sense. At this point on the chart would you look to buy or wait until price moves up and then buy on a pull back?
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maksheetal maksheetal
@maksheetal, Thanks for the updates. Great advice.
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First of all, thank you for sharing this wonderful trade setup. Looking forward to see the result.
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