The ducks may be lining up for a resumption of the USD/JPY downtrend.
Firstly, it remains in a defined falling channel. Secondly, Tuesday’s reversal delivered a bearish pin candle, often seen around market tops. Thirdly, the rebound from last week’s lows resembles a bear wedge pattern, warning of a potential downside break and resumption of the bear trend.
Momentum indicators aren’t fully on board, with RSI (14) and MACD trending higher, so the case for initiating shorts is not yet a slam dunk. But it should be on the watchlist.
A break of the bear wedge would put a retest of 148.65 on the radar, with a move beyond that level opening the door for a possible flush towards 147.10, where buyers were lurking last week. If the price were to keep pushing higher and break channel resistance, the bearish bias would be invalidated.
As covered in the attached analysis, when it comes to risks around rates guidance from the Fed and BOJ later today, this scribe sees those for the former skewed towards a slightly more dovish outcome than market pricing, and a more hawkish tone from the BOJ.
Good luck!
DS
Firstly, it remains in a defined falling channel. Secondly, Tuesday’s reversal delivered a bearish pin candle, often seen around market tops. Thirdly, the rebound from last week’s lows resembles a bear wedge pattern, warning of a potential downside break and resumption of the bear trend.
Momentum indicators aren’t fully on board, with RSI (14) and MACD trending higher, so the case for initiating shorts is not yet a slam dunk. But it should be on the watchlist.
A break of the bear wedge would put a retest of 148.65 on the radar, with a move beyond that level opening the door for a possible flush towards 147.10, where buyers were lurking last week. If the price were to keep pushing higher and break channel resistance, the bearish bias would be invalidated.
As covered in the attached analysis, when it comes to risks around rates guidance from the Fed and BOJ later today, this scribe sees those for the former skewed towards a slightly more dovish outcome than market pricing, and a more hawkish tone from the BOJ.
Good luck!
DS
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