USDJPY Technical Outlook: SMC and Wyckoff Analysis 5 May 2025

5月5日

As of May 5, 2025, the USDJPY pair is trading around ¥144.30, reflecting a 0.40% decrease from the previous session. This movement follows the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain interest rates while revising growth forecasts downward, leading to a depreciation of the yen.

Technical Analysis:

• Support and Resistance Levels: The pair is approaching a significant support zone near ¥143.00. A break below this level could expose the next support at ¥141.00, while resistance is observed around ¥148.00.
  
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is nearing oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound.
  

Smart Money Concepts:

• Order Blocks: A bullish order block is identified between ¥142.50 and ¥143.00, indicating potential institutional buying interest.
  
• Liquidity Pools: Liquidity above the recent highs near ¥148.00 may attract price action if bullish momentum resumes.
  

Wyckoff Method Perspective:

• Accumulation Phase: The recent price action suggests a possible accumulation phase, with the pair trading within a range between ¥140.00 and ¥146.00.
  
• Spring Test: A false breakout below ¥143.00 could serve as a spring, leading to potentially high buying volume.
  

Fundamental Factors:

• Bank of Japan (BOJ) Policy: The BOJ's decision to keep rates unchanged, despite lowering growth forecasts, has contributed to yen weakness.
  
• Federal Reserve Outlook: Market participants are closely watching the ISM Services PMI later today and the upcoming FOMC meeting for signals on US monetary policy, which could impact USDJPY dynamics.
  

Conclusion:
The USDJPY pair is at a critical juncture, with technical indicators pointing to potential support near ¥143.00. Traders should monitor price action around this level for signs of accumulation or further downside. Fundamental developments, particularly central bank policies, will play a crucial role in determining the pair's direction in the near term.

5月6日

交易進行

Aggressive entry taken, HTF structure has not yet failed. Entry based on LTF momentum. Currently at entry level with SL below the recent 15m low

5月6日

註釋

Aggressive entry failed. Will be looking for LTF confirmations to enter again.