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End of Week Review Sunday 27th January 2018

FX:USDJPY   美元 / 日圓
End of Week Review
Sunday 27th January 2018

Monthly Chart
Candlestick:
Red Marubozu
It falls back within the parallel lines. It cannot go above it.
It bounced off strong W support of 108.6/108.1.

!!
Q1 is will it break the strong W support of 108.6 – 108.1
Q2 will it go down to 107.4?
Q3 or like September 11 weekly candle, will it just bounce back up again?

Note: at the moment, non economic data news that is at play (not scheduled on calendar) are:
- US stop gap funding bill,
- FOMC (will someone say something?),
- Davos (idem),
- will anyone (Munchin etc.) else say something about the USD?, etc.
!!

>Note re US stop-gap bill:
As at 19th January 2018: The US House of Representatives on Thursday passed a stop-gap bill to fund federal agencies beyond Friday night but the measure to avoid a looming government shutdown still faces opposition in the Senate.
The 230-197 vote would keep the US government funded !for four more weeks!, but the Republican-backed bill will still need to pass in the Senate, where support from Democrats is uncertain without protection for “Dreamers” — young people brought to the US illegally as children.

>Conclusion:
I must wait for what is the floor – will it be 107.4 or will it bounce up.
I want to know what is my trading area.

EMA 7, 12, 50.
faster moving > prone to false curves
50 is already above 7 AND 12.

>Conclusion:
Downtrend is already established.

BB sd             2
Last week was: In the top band – but on the bottom edge, will break through if it solidly broke through 111.74 support line.
BB is squeezing.
This week was: in the middle band – broken through.
BB is squeezing.

>Conclusion:
it supports EMA analysis – Downtrend is already established.

BB sd             1
Last week was: Right in the middle of it.
This week was: in the middle band – broken through.

>Conclusion:
it supports previous analysis – Downtrend is already established.

Parabolic SAR
- to show if a trend has ended.
Still in the trending up
> It is lagging

Stochastic
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- if >80 = overbought
- if <20 = oversold
>>at 80 = overbought
??? How to calculate – later

Last week was: 80 has been touched, the lines have crossed underneath 80 and are declining.
> Downtrend is already established.

This week was:

>Conclusion:
overbought.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?


RSI
- to show if a trend is going to end.
- If >50 = overbought
- If <50 = oversold
>> at 50 = overbought
???? How to calculate – later

Last week was: 50
This week was: 50 & declining

>Conclusion:
overbought.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?

ADX
- To find out if the market is ranging or trending
- Ranging = low = 20
- Trending =>
-- going up to 50 = going up
-- going down from 50 = declining
>> declining and at 20 =>> ranging

This week was: 20.
>Conclusion:
ranging and declining trend.
?! is this an early indicator it might bounce off?!?


MACD
Last week was: Histogram = is declining, now the bar is really low
This week was: Histogram = have crossed but very flat crossed!
Lines = have crossed, and been declining. But very flat.
>Conclusion:
It seems like a weak crossed and might bounce off – doesn’t have strength to go down to 107.
*Unless word propel downfall.

Econ             Calendar
30 January 2018 MELB AM US Unemployment Rate
01 February 2018 MELB AM US FOMC RATE AND US ADP NO

Conclusion
Words propelled it to touch 108.6 S/R level .

Right now S/R levels are:
Resistance 114.083 (M) 113.6 (M)
Support 107.3 (questioned for next periods). Right now 108.6

!!
Question for next period:
Will it go down to 107.3 – by words? I cannot predict it from chart and econ             calendar.
!!

Weekly Chart

Candlestick
Red Marubozubearish engulfing .
Pattern = very bearish “Bearish three outside down”
https://www.candlesticker.com/Pattern.aspx?lang=en&Pattern=3212

Chart since April 2017 to Now
Support = 108.2 - 1 time: September 2017
Support 2 = 108.7 – 3 times: August, June (wicks only) and April 2017
This means cur
Hi.. Thank you for the good analysis about technical and news. I understand USA politic has some issue. But if JPY has some issue, it will be bounced. So far, in my experiences, I think USD movement has been manipulated. I think Forex and big bankers want to reset the economic same as last year. Now, I can see there are many seller and buyer.. I think seller is more than buyer, because buyer lost a lot already. So, I think at this time, it is time for sellers.... If it is down 107, it means USA has recession at 2012-2014 again. I think it is enough time to be bounced up. As you know, Yellen will be resigned at Mar 2018. New Chairman will start work. As FRB announced, they will increase interest rate soon. The problem is how much international bankers allow Trump's speech. Whenever he has speech.. Market is so bad. I do not understand why wallstreet are so silent.
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KAIZEN thdehddns
@thdehddns,
Hi thx for the comment :)

So what is your analysis? Will you short, long or wait out?
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