USDJPY and stocks in steep decline: UJ to break 112 round?

2018年12月18日

UJ is in a steep decline, thanks to stocks tanking and Gold rising.
Risk off sentiment is strong right now, and should remain so until the FOMC decision Wednesday.
And the FOMC decision and comments may actually make is WORSE if they are hawkish and looking to hike more than once in 2019.

For now UJ looks to be working on a wave (3), which is nearly complete and preparing for a bounce.
Wave (4) should create a decent bounce, but I doubt it will go higher than 113 round or even close.
Wave (5) should typically come to the 4.236 extension of wave (1), especially given the momentum of (3).

Lets see how this plays out.

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Background:
This UJ story starts in early October 2018, with my search for the mythical ''top''

As the downtrend progressed, I started looking for a ''final leg'' down

Then it seemed we had found a temporary bottom:

But then came the Stock market swoon, so it seemed to need one more leg down yet

Then another bounce when Trump-Xi talks were rumored to be making good progress

Of course, we all know how that turned out, and stocks have been diving. So the current plan to target a ''bottom'' to close shorts

2018年12月18日

註釋

Here we are, perhaps end of wave 3 and a bounce for wave 4 possibly

close up shows a near exact bounce at the 3.0 fib BUT it was not as exact nor as strong of a bounce, but lets see what happens now

2018年12月18日

註釋

support is looking a little better, but clearly the risk sentiment is holding it down