Whether or not we see BOJ rate hikes in mid-December, I think this pair is due for more correction. In late 2023 we saw the pair down around the 140 level. USDJPY performance closely follows 2, 5, 10 year US bond yields. Following the fed's rate decreases in fall of 2024, bond yield rates are falling again and this pair will follow.
Don't forget the BOJ hasn't put rate hikes off the table, but I don't expect to see anything from BOJ unless we see a serious push to 160 before mid-December. I'm keeping an eye out for more data and a good entry, but I think a short position with a target of 140 is quite reasonable within the next 4-6 weeks. We have a good level of support there at 140.
I'd like to hear thoughts on the factors I described impacting this currency pair. I'm not ready to make a position yet, but I think we're looking good for a setup to a short. As always, the best time was a few months ago back at 160! ;)
Don't forget the BOJ hasn't put rate hikes off the table, but I don't expect to see anything from BOJ unless we see a serious push to 160 before mid-December. I'm keeping an eye out for more data and a good entry, but I think a short position with a target of 140 is quite reasonable within the next 4-6 weeks. We have a good level of support there at 140.
I'd like to hear thoughts on the factors I described impacting this currency pair. I'm not ready to make a position yet, but I think we're looking good for a setup to a short. As always, the best time was a few months ago back at 160! ;)
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