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Skeptic | USD/JPY Analysis: Bearish Momentum Fuels Short Setups!

Hey everyone, Skeptic here! I know some of you might’ve missed our last USD/CHF short signal that hit a sweet 3:1 R/R—no worries! 😊 The market’s always here, so missing a trade isn’t the end of the world. I’m not here to push FOMO; my goal is to take you on a long-term trading journey, and I’m stoked to have you along for the ride! :))) Let’s get back to USD/JPY and break down the latest action. 📊

Daily Timeframe: The Big Picture

First, let’s zoom out and talk about the DXY (US Dollar Index), which recently broke the 99.005 support and turned bearish. This puts USD-based pairs like USD/JPY in the spotlight for short opportunities this week. Here’s what’s happening with USD/JPY:

Trend Context: The major trend is bearish. Last week, sellers showed no mercy to buyers, and with DXY’s bearish move, we’re likely to see more of the same this week.
Key Level: We’re currently reacting to a major daily support at 142.305. Expect a range or reaction here, so we must wait for confirmation before shorting.
Recent Correction: The prior correction reached the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement and seems to have resumed the major bearish trend.

With this in mind, let’s zoom into the 4-Hour Timeframe to hunt for long and short setups.

4-Hour Timeframe: Long & Short Setups

The 4-hour chart is giving us some clear signals to work with. Here’s the plan:

Short Setup:

Key Level: The 142.338 level is critical, as it formed a ceiling at 148.569 in the past and acted as support before.
Trigger: If we form a lower high and then break below 142.305, open a short position.
Confirmation: Use RSI to back up the breakout, ensuring momentum aligns.
Why It Works: A lower high signals increasing weakness in this support, making a break more likely.

Long Setup:

My Take: I personally don’t have a long trigger right now. Both the major and minor trends are downtrends, so going long doesn’t make sense in these conditions.
If You Insist: If you’re set on a long, wait for a break above 144.125. But keep it tight—low risk, small stop loss, and take profits quickly once you hit a decent R/R.

💬 Let’s Talk!
If this analysis sparked some ideas, give it a quick boost—it really helps! 😊 Got a pair or setup you want me to dive into next? Drop it in the comments, and I’ll tackle it. Thanks for joining me—see you in the next one. Keep trading smart! ✌️

交易結束：目標達成

After the trigger for the long I mentioned in the analysis at 144.125, USDJPY managed about 177 Pips growth :) If this analysis helped you out, give it a boost and let’s grow together <3