Can USD/JPY finally make a break for 140?

2022年8月30日

The question on most trader's minds is whether USD/JPY will finally test 140. And another question is whether the BOJ (Bank of Japan) could intervene to weaken the yen and send USD/JPY lower. But it should be remembered that it is not an exact level in which the yen trades as to whether the BOJ intervenes, but how quickly it gets there. The BOJ have made it clear that they view a weaker currency as beneficial for the economy overall, so as long as volatility remains in check the potential for 140 USD/JPY (or higher) remains a distinct possibility. But given that Friday's NFP report is the main focus for the week, perhaps prices will remain below 139.39 heading into it and retrace against the trend.

As for the charts, its rally has stalled just below the YTD high (139.39) and a Doji formed on the daily chart, which shows a slight hesitancy to break immediately higher. The 20-bar eMA has provided support on the 4-hour chart and a bullish engulfing candle has formed, leaving the potential for another crack at the YTD high. But such key levels rarely break upon their first re-test, hence the potential for a pullback. But we'd look for bullish setups at or around the 138 support level or lower trendline, in anticipation of its next leg higher towards 140 - near the weekly R3 pivot point.

2022年9月4日

交易結束：目標達成

USD/JPY reached (and exceeded) our 140 target and prices are now consolidating above that key level and using it as support. However, the daily chart printed a bearish Pinbar on Friday which brings the potential for some mean reversion.

The trend remains very bullish overall, so any moves lower are assumed to be corrective and a potential opportunity for bulls to re-join the trend. Therefore, a low volatility retracement towards 139 would be welcomed – at which point we would seek evidence of a swing low for bullish opportunities.