stephenleachman

USD/JPY LONG TERM ANALYSIS (TAKING A STEP BACK)

FX:USDJPY   美元 / 日圓
630 8 24
On the monthly chart of the Dollar - Yen going back to 1995 Interesting to note is these clear multi year trend lines . We can see that price is around a 50% retracement @100.711 of the Low in Oct 2011 @75.565 to the highs in July @125.856. So we could say price is in a retracement of a very long term uptrend but I think more importantly is the descending trend line that was tagged 3 times as resistance and on brexit tagged as support. I would like to see the Monthly RSI close at 40 but I also want to see price on a close bases above 100 In a reversal scenario.

What to take away from this is that the USD/JPY             is at Long term multi year support and if it holds could reverse and move up to 166 Which was support back in 2015. If not long term down side support would be the 61.8% Retracement of Oct 2011 low to July 2015 High @94.77 and below that Technically price could fall to 80.00 but highly improbable.
I think 80 is not only not " highly improbable" but the most likely outcome for the pair by 2019. In fact, I expect it take out 2011 lows, i.e. below 75. But before it goes there, it should jump above 110 by the end of this Fall.
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Thanks for that interesting analysis. It looks very convincing to me. Did you mean 116 as target for the possible move up?
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Yes 116.00 would be a level of strong long term resistance. 116.00 was also support last year 2015. Old support new resistance.
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Thanks a lor for drawing our attention to it in such a clear and concise way.
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Thank you, I think it's important to note.
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Thank you.
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