USDJPY downtrend UPDATED zones: UJ to hit 111.50 ?

2018年12月20日

This is an update to my previous plot, which was before the FOMC rate decsion:

Now that FOMC has made their move, the result was ''less dovish'' than the market had expected.
Thus risk sentiment is swinging more towards caution, so Stocks down, Gold up, Yen strong.
I plot UJ because it is the cleanest, but obviosly all other Yen pairs will follow it various extents.

I am currently short on all Yen pairs, NJ, AJ, CJ, EJ, UJ (in order of position size).
Lets see how this plays out into the Holiday Weeks coming ahead.

.

.
.
Background:
This UJ story starts in early October 2018, with my search for the mythical ''top''

As the downtrend progressed, I started looking for a ''final leg'' down

For a while it seemed we had found a temporary bottom:

But then came the Stock market swoon, so it seemed to need one more leg down yet

Then another bounce when Trump-Xi talks were rumored to be making good progress

And now we have had the FED rate decision, being less dovish than expected. So the current plan is to target a ''bottom'' to close shorts

2018年12月20日

註釋

Closeup of the current zones. The one above was clearly relevant. Have not reach the lower one yet, it is possible I missed fib. but I think it will go down quite a bit more yet this week.

.

2018年12月20日

註釋

There we go, perfect hit on the zone. will probably go lower but I expect a bit of a bounce here ... maybe ...

.

2018年12月20日

註釋

The zone is holding for now, but no signs of a bounce. Stocks are rising a bit, so I do still expect a bounce here

2018年12月21日

註釋

Well we below through all of the targets and then some

Looks like this red fib series is in control, with a perfect bounce at the 6.618

But this type of resonace and strong wave usually reaches the 7.618, so I am imaging this possibility

I am working that angle some more, and will post a new Idea when it clicks together.