Mexican Peso Under Renewed Pressure

The Mexican peso is once again under pressure against the U.S. dollar, approaching multi-year lows during certain moments of the day. This depreciation is driven by a confluence of internal and external factors, generating uncertainty in Mexican markets.

The USD/MXN exchange rate has risen by 0.7%, reversing part of the initial optimism following the absence of executive orders on tariffs during Donald Trump’s first day of his new presidency. However, the subsequent mention of potential 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico starting February 1 has added volatility to the market, putting further pressure on the peso. If implemented, this potential measure would significantly impact the Mexican economy, given its close trade relationship with the United States. The shadow of tariffs looms over the peso, generating risk aversion that weakens the currency.

On the domestic front, recent economic data paints a challenging picture. Retail sales have declined by 0.1% month-over-month, marking two consecutive months of drops. Even more concerning is the 1.9% year-over-year decline in November 2024, the seventh consecutive month of contraction, exceeding market expectations of a 1.2% drop. This broad-based decline in domestic consumption, with sharp drops in key sectors such as supermarkets, department stores, healthcare products, and hardware, suggests the presence of structural issues affecting internal demand. While e-commerce and home goods show some increases, they fail to offset the weakness in other sectors. The persistent decline in retail sales reflects a underlying weakness in domestic consumption, raising questions about economic dynamism.

Falling inflation opens the door for a possible rate cut by Banxico in its February meeting. This more accommodative monetary stance contrasts with expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve, potentially narrowing the interest rate differential between the two economies and further pressuring the peso. This divergence in monetary policies adds an additional layer of uncertainty for the exchange rate.

The Mexican economy's high dependence on trade and remittances from the U.S. makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks. The imposition of new tariffs or stricter immigration policies could negatively impact public finances and further weaken domestic consumption. In this context, attention focuses on upcoming economic policy decisions in both Mexico and the United States, which will be crucial for the Mexican peso’s trajectory in the short and medium term. In the long run, the peso’s strength will largely depend on Mexico’s ability to navigate this period of uncertainty in its trade relations.