$USD vs. $NOK - Wolfe Wave Eyes 1-4 Line #forex #fibonacci

2015年6月6日

Friends,


Here is a potential opportunity to witness a geometric cycle completion of a Wolfe Wave pattern, concluding at its 1-4 Line validation.


WOLFE WAVE:

Potential short-opp presents itself through the geometric completion of a Wolfe Wave at market close in this 4-hour chart. On last day of market, price reached the 1-3 alignment. This was paced into a 5-point morphology typical of the Wolfe Wave, which projects its "Take Profit" target via a probable 1-4 Line validation.


FIBONACCI NOTE:

If price were to complete this geometric cycle, potential levels of support should be sought along the 1-4 Line of the pattern, in structural convergence with price levels of 7.64660 and 7.56234, corresponding to 50.0% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. Historically, these levels align with significant pivots, as highlighted in the chart.





ELLIOTT WAVE NOTE:

Preceding this Wolfe Wave pattern completion, a reciprocal symmetry (ab = cd) may call for a potential rallying to higher highs - A weekly chart (not shown) would suggest that this segment corresponds to an Elliott Wave 5th wave correction, and that a final 5th impulse would push price to higher levels, above current Wolfe Wave, either into a conclusive 5th wave truncation, or a full extension above Point-a of the background symmetry.


OVERALL:

This represents a high-probability set-up at a higher, stable timeframe. The probability of recovery from the recent price swing (from point-2 to point-5 of the geometry) is high, but likely controlled at a Fibonacci pace, at significant levels defined in the chart.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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Twitter:
4xForecaster

LinkedIn:
David Alcindor
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2015年11月7日

註釋

07 NOV 2015 - This is a cut/paste of the "Chart Update" and "Tech-Note" comments that I had posted in the "Post Comment" section.

In order to keep the chronology clean, following is a mere cut/paste of the comments and charts made prior to this week:


* * * In order to avoid any confusion from a dual analysis which sought bullish target at the long-term timeframe (weekly) and mid-term bearish targets (4-hour chart), I have left the 4-hour chart or any smaller timeframe out on purpose - Following is only a cut/paste chronology that pertains to the original analysis on the weekly chart * * *


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06 JUN 2014 - ADDENDUM:

For sake of illustration, here is what the WEEKLY chart would look for, enumerating a incomplete Elliott Wave impulse with its internal 5 waves (5th wave remains speculative, although Predictive/Forecasting Model defined a top target as shown in this chart, corresponding to a minor Fibonacci level):



Note that significant resistance is expected at the Bearish Entrenchment zone, if price rose challenged that level. For the Wolve Wave/Geo trader, remember that in the H4 chart, a ab = cd pattern was left to sight. This is simply a visual reminder that it may represent the 1-2 Leg of a 5-point anatomy pertaining to the Geo (which has a ab = cd rule requirement in its 1-2 Leg, in contrast to the Wolve Wave).

Best,
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David Alcindor


07 JUL 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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USDNOK drills through Bearish Entrenchment; Mulls Elliott Wave 5th wave completion:



USD NOK norges #forex
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David Alcindor


03 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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USDNOK stomps against fierce bearish entrapment; Faces highest prob. of reversal; Geo lurks in background:



NOK
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David Alcindor
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2015年11月7日

註釋

07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

As price roll-steamed right through the anticipated "Bearish Entrenchment" zone, it ended up validating a long-term target defined on June 06th, 2015 as "TG-Hi - 8.66629 - 06 JUN2015":


At this point, a nascent Geo remains intact, as price reached a higher probability of reversal upon validating this aforementioned "Qual-Target" - Note that such reversal would likely be unimpeded, perhaps expressed as a bearish motive of 5-wave internals ... Worth the wait - The structure most likely to offer support is defined in the following chart:


In terms of Fibonacci value, this would represent a 61.8% contraction:


David Alcindor