Russian Ruble on the verge of a devaluation

2022年1月6日

I haven't traded a trend in forex for years - this is the best looking currency chart I've seen in a VERY long time.

50 month MA
Tightening base
Close to a breakout from the pennant

Obviously unsure what the reasoning for this is, but I'd expect a catalyst sometime in 2022 that could send the ruble down double digit %

2022年2月21日

註釋

Update

2022年2月24日

註釋

Major breakout here. Targets 120


Currency markets are probably the closest thing there is to having a macroeconomic crystal ball

2022年2月28日

註釋

With the explosive move after the weekend news I would expect price action like this in short term. Rallies will likely be sold in the Ruble at every opportunity:


The 423 extension goes as high as 180s. From here it's impossible to guess where it can go, but as this is a major monthly breakout it is a likely a secular decline (in this case an uptrend in the USD against the Ruble) rather than a temporary devaluation, so 180s makes sense to me this year. But from a trade perspective the primary target has been reached

2022年4月7日

註釋

For some reason the chart above no longer updates the forex pair (assuming the provider no longer offers the pair), but incredibly the Ruble reverted back to its pre-invasion price and 200dma. I would assume weakness in the Ruble will begin again off this level