USDT.D Update:
Its been a while since my last USDT.D update on here since i accurately forecasted and called the top in September last year from its last distribution range. Since then, Ive been expecting USDT.D and USDC.D to continue higher into deeper premiums and into monthly and 3M supply areas, taking further BSL in the process and coming into the HTF downtrend channel high, whilst the rest of the market continued bearish after the first moves from last year.
Both have done just that, pushing higher to extreme supply and heavy premium pricing. USDT.D has topped out with high volume as it come into refined extreme daily supply from the UT event in the prior distribution range, whilst taking the LQ at the 5.93% level i discussed in the market update videos. This is effectively following last points of supply from one distribution range to the next, following HTF bearish orderflow and HTF bearish structure in stablecoin dominance pairs. From the recent UTAD event we have seen bearish breakdowns on the daily timeframe on both USDT.D and and USDC.D, marking a turn in the market where things should start to get more interesting! Im looking for this again but on the weekly timeframe and monitoring for a HTF weekly close below the weekly HL, therefore putting in a LL on the weekly to give further HTF confirmations of the reversal from this area.
Whats interesting at this point is the last couple days of data on both USDT.D and USDC.D and the range conditions we are now creating.
For me, it looks pretty similar to the last top, where we created a distribution range in HTF supply after taking extreme key levels and LQ, putting the market in extreme fear, before slowly flipping bearish in the range before a full blown reversal and breakdown to the 3.73% level.
Im expecting a bounce of some degree over the next week or so in USDT.D back into the 5.57% region where the range high sits alongside some daily and refined 12H supply zones from the UTAD event. Im looking for a push into supply forming a LPSY last point of supply in phase D, before continuing HTF bearish to target SSL on the lows of this upward trend channel with my main targets between 3.73% and 3.12%. This aligns with what im seeing in BTC as posted today on TradingView and the market, expecting a pullback to demand respectively before continued upside.
I don't for see this taking the highs again above 6.24%. There is a lot of resistance and supply in this range now we have broke down and its likely we are seeing the formation of the reversal taking shape in due course.
As ive stated i the most recent BTC analysis, this is a risk on situation in my opinion and i will be allocating capital to spot bags as USDT.D hits its supply levels in the range highs and as BTC comes into the daily demand levels im monitoring between $84,000 - $76,500, buying the dip whilst expecting further upside and a HL to form in BTC and new LHs in stablecoin dominance pairs.
To finish, look at this chart on the daily, 2D, 3D, 4D, 5D, 1W, 2W, 3W charts and really look at the HTF closes on these candles at these highs. Theres been no HTF bullish closes above HTF supply or significant highs. Price has failed to put in new higher highs and is merely sweeping highs now with high volume rejections, volume dropping off, all whilst looking like a top imo with HTF weekly rejections all the way up to the monthly candle.
1D:
3D:
1W:
1M:
Its been a while since my last USDT.D update on here since i accurately forecasted and called the top in September last year from its last distribution range. Since then, Ive been expecting USDT.D and USDC.D to continue higher into deeper premiums and into monthly and 3M supply areas, taking further BSL in the process and coming into the HTF downtrend channel high, whilst the rest of the market continued bearish after the first moves from last year.
Both have done just that, pushing higher to extreme supply and heavy premium pricing. USDT.D has topped out with high volume as it come into refined extreme daily supply from the UT event in the prior distribution range, whilst taking the LQ at the 5.93% level i discussed in the market update videos. This is effectively following last points of supply from one distribution range to the next, following HTF bearish orderflow and HTF bearish structure in stablecoin dominance pairs. From the recent UTAD event we have seen bearish breakdowns on the daily timeframe on both USDT.D and and USDC.D, marking a turn in the market where things should start to get more interesting! Im looking for this again but on the weekly timeframe and monitoring for a HTF weekly close below the weekly HL, therefore putting in a LL on the weekly to give further HTF confirmations of the reversal from this area.
Whats interesting at this point is the last couple days of data on both USDT.D and USDC.D and the range conditions we are now creating.
For me, it looks pretty similar to the last top, where we created a distribution range in HTF supply after taking extreme key levels and LQ, putting the market in extreme fear, before slowly flipping bearish in the range before a full blown reversal and breakdown to the 3.73% level.
Im expecting a bounce of some degree over the next week or so in USDT.D back into the 5.57% region where the range high sits alongside some daily and refined 12H supply zones from the UTAD event. Im looking for a push into supply forming a LPSY last point of supply in phase D, before continuing HTF bearish to target SSL on the lows of this upward trend channel with my main targets between 3.73% and 3.12%. This aligns with what im seeing in BTC as posted today on TradingView and the market, expecting a pullback to demand respectively before continued upside.
I don't for see this taking the highs again above 6.24%. There is a lot of resistance and supply in this range now we have broke down and its likely we are seeing the formation of the reversal taking shape in due course.
As ive stated i the most recent BTC analysis, this is a risk on situation in my opinion and i will be allocating capital to spot bags as USDT.D hits its supply levels in the range highs and as BTC comes into the daily demand levels im monitoring between $84,000 - $76,500, buying the dip whilst expecting further upside and a HL to form in BTC and new LHs in stablecoin dominance pairs.
To finish, look at this chart on the daily, 2D, 3D, 4D, 5D, 1W, 2W, 3W charts and really look at the HTF closes on these candles at these highs. Theres been no HTF bullish closes above HTF supply or significant highs. Price has failed to put in new higher highs and is merely sweeping highs now with high volume rejections, volume dropping off, all whilst looking like a top imo with HTF weekly rejections all the way up to the monthly candle.
1D:
3D:
1W:
1M:
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