USOIL, patterns and channels for bulls and bears

2016年12月17日

Begin with the caveat all traders understand, every pattern requires confirmation along the way. So this will be a discussion of patterns and confirmations. I tend to trade daily, so i am neither long nor short.

Pattern 1: Macro wolf wave, $65 by mid January.

Channel 1 (Yellow): bull channel from November 2016
Channel 2 (Blue) : bear channel from December 2016

Trend lines aplenty: top to bottom all price number give or take 20 cents
Red line: Prior peak week of 12/5 - may be the right shoulder of a H&S pattern. Marks the first checkpoint 52.4x
Fuscia line: Prior peak from October 51.8x
Fuscia line: Low trend from 12/1, 12/8, 12/15 50.1x
Fuscia line: Low trend line from 11/14, 11/30 49.0x
Red line: Prior minor high points of range trading 46.6x
Bullish Cipher possible formation.
Checkpoints:
1. Continue to move up to 52.4x
2. 52.4x fork in the road:
- a break up would set us up in a new analysis as it moves to the top of the bullish channel 56.6x
- pullback to 50.1x
2. 50.1x up may confirm elliot wave 3 and to 52.2x again
- down from here and we have crossed the neckline of a H&S and would target 49.0x

3. if we hit wave point 3, then look for point 4 to complete the H&S at 49.0x

4. 49.0x loo for a bounce bull run to point 5, 53.7x
or look for completion of cipher to 46.6x

In all cases these intermediate patterns are longer term bullish. With reversion back into the bullish channel.