Crude Oil advanced EW count關於FX:USOIL由TimStuyts提供

Oil is coming close to making a decision. The chart is a bit messy but I hope it is still clear. We determined 3 potential reversal zones and so far the second zone seems to hold. There are several way's to count this correction lower due to the many overlaps. So what is key? The fact that we see many overlaps and 11 waves lower. This is an extension of 3 and therefore likely corrective. I will be looking for a confirmation by means of a consolidation and continuation. Like I said before I'm looking for 60 as minimum for a wave C of larger degree. I expect this wave C to have 5 inner waves and we therefore don't have to rush. Let the first impulse settle (might currently be in progress) and buy wave 3 once wave 2 consolidation is over).

If we break lower and make a new low, the whole process starts all over again (but then we are not in the buy trade), however I like to see a corrective count, 11-15-19 etc for a high probability reversal.

Updates will follow

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評論:

We were looking for the reversal and that is confirmed by means of the 1-2-3 reversal on 1 hour time frame. What I don't like for medium term rise in Oil is the extended wave count (7 from the recent low). Off course you might say that bullish move seems impulsive and I agree. However keep in mind that we are dealing with historical lows and volatility tends to increase in those situations. The fact that the strongest move happened in the beginning is not helping a high probability bullish wave count neither.
I will be trading the 1 hour time frame with entries on lower time frames because there are just too many valid scenario's on the higher time frames to come up with a high probability wave count. The only thing what is leading in terms of wave count is the chart I posted above where I counted all extensions.
Updates will follow