Oil is a trouble

Oil count is very, very difficult. All those bearish candles and rejections against MAs and resistance levels are bearish. The fact that oil did not follow SP500 in the recent fake rally is also bearish. Despite all of that the count, the look and feel of waves, bouncing off 200MA support on W speak in favour of a rally.

Also,

• the price made a local double bottom with negative divergence against RSI
  
• it declined in clear 3-3-3 pattern (labelled wxy on the right) and staged 5-3-5-3-5 rally thereafter
  

These two factors make me expect that the price will decline in the next few days to complete wave c and then BOOM some unexpected news will propel the price to $61/bbl to complete abc flat pattern.

Any Elliotticians here? Can wave b subdivide in wxy?