COVID marked the supercycle's low in oil. Since then, the price has rallied to form a [W] double zigzag consisting of (A)(B)(C).
Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal.
When completed, I believe the price will drop to 660/BBL in 2025.
The alternative is that wave [X] has ended (in blue), and the price will gradually reach an all-time high (blue C).
Clarity is likely to emerge in late 2024. If the price breaks below the [iv] wave, the odds favour $60/bbl.
If the decline from [v] occurs in a corrective fashion, we will consider changing the base case for the multi-year bullish scenario.
Since February 2022, the price has been falling in a very choppy manner. Recent developments suggest that the price is forming an expanding diagonal.
When completed, I believe the price will drop to 660/BBL in 2025.
The alternative is that wave [X] has ended (in blue), and the price will gradually reach an all-time high (blue C).
Clarity is likely to emerge in late 2024. If the price breaks below the [iv] wave, the odds favour $60/bbl.
If the decline from [v] occurs in a corrective fashion, we will consider changing the base case for the multi-year bullish scenario.
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