Kirn

Waiting for $60.00 re-entry on WTI for Q4 push to $89.00

TVC:USOIL   WTI 原油差價合約
Dollar index             is still being murdered, but today's daily candle may be a sign that it will pause before FOMC. The dollar will continue to fall, and OPEC has stated that the oil             market will be "rebalanced" by Q4 this year. The current Fibonacci extension of 1.618 (the general final target ratio) is $90, so while many consider $100 oil             to be the norm, that may come in the form of Brent, with a $10.00 spread.

The mid channel support diagonal implies that the low end of this next pullback will happen, perhaps at the end of June, or first of July- $60.00. While Summer is seasonally the bull side of things, that is when OPEC will decide to continue cuts, or not. At that time, Russia will not consider continuing the cuts, as their final target for the reduction was $65.00.

Makes sense.
評論: Huge shift in fundamentals, this idea is invalidated.
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