Despite increasing concerns with overall deflation, which should generally take prices down, I can't ignore the pattern I see here. Taking the 2009-2014 price action as a triangle, the measured post-triangle thrust was met and just barely exceeded by the crash until January 2015. I believe that was a 3rd wave low.
The following rally into June '15, as a 4th wave, met precisely 0.382 retracement of the 3rd wave. It also traced out a triangle which implied a thrust down to precisely where the following decline bottomed (5th wave).
In total, this decline from June until August represents 0.618 of the length of the wave labeled "A" in the chart. From $37.73, I see a 5-wave rally into October which has retraced just about 0.618 of itself to date.
All in all, I think this gives good E.W. technical basis to view the "C" wave as complete, unless the price falls below $37.73. I hesitantly speculate that oil may actually be in a bullish triangle and may rise to the $90s next in a "D" wave, though I imagine that this would almost need to correlate with some imminent but unforeseen geopolitical event which constrains supply. If the Saudis are really fixing the price in the $60s to knock American frackers out of the game, it would have to be something or someone more powerful than them. Happy Halloween.
The following rally into June '15, as a 4th wave, met precisely 0.382 retracement of the 3rd wave. It also traced out a triangle which implied a thrust down to precisely where the following decline bottomed (5th wave).
In total, this decline from June until August represents 0.618 of the length of the wave labeled "A" in the chart. From $37.73, I see a 5-wave rally into October which has retraced just about 0.618 of itself to date.
All in all, I think this gives good E.W. technical basis to view the "C" wave as complete, unless the price falls below $37.73. I hesitantly speculate that oil may actually be in a bullish triangle and may rise to the $90s next in a "D" wave, though I imagine that this would almost need to correlate with some imminent but unforeseen geopolitical event which constrains supply. If the Saudis are really fixing the price in the $60s to knock American frackers out of the game, it would have to be something or someone more powerful than them. Happy Halloween.