VIC hope you are watching it.

6月5日

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### 🇻🇳 Vin Group (VIC): An On-the-Ground Perspective from Vietnam 📈

After first visiting Vietnam in 2022, it became clear Vin Group is doing a lot of interesting things in Vietnam. To me, Vin Group seemed like an obvious thing to get exposure to a lot of the growth in Vietnam.
* **Accessibility Note:** VIC is not easily available outside Vietnam, other than within Vietnamese indexes.

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### The VFS Anomaly & Free Float Insights

While in 2023, VFS (VinFast) went to prices that defied all logic on US markets, US media most likely had no idea about $VIC. All you needed to do was see that VIC held most of the VFS shares (I thought it was 80%, but some suggestions indicate it might have been closer to 99%).
* **Key Takeaway:** A lot of retail investors won't understand free float risks. Starting my investing journey in the crypto space, I am well versed in dealing with assets with low float.

**(Image 1: VFS Marketcap)**
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*VFS Marketcap*

**(Image 2: VIC Marketcap & The Disconnect)**
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*VIC Marketcap – Note: VIC is in VND, VFS in USD. At one point, VIC (approx. $12B USD) held VFS shares valued vastly higher, highlighting a significant market disconnect.*

> Needless to say, I wanted exposure to the things Vin Group was doing but chose to wait rather than join that insanity.

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### An Expat's View: Seeing Vietnam's Transformation zmiany

As of Q4 2023, I moved to Vietnam. Living here, I get to see what's going on. Though I am still a foreigner, I get a different perspective.
> You see, when you look in the mirror every day, it's hard to see the changes. Then you see that family member you haven't seen in a while who still thinks you're 6, but you're actually 16. This is the case in Vietnam; many people came years ago and think it's the same or worse, or perhaps just watched a movie.

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### Understanding Vietnam's Economic DNA: Đổi Mới and its People 🚀

To understand economics in Vietnam, you must first understand **Đổi Mới** – those changes are the start of economic success in Vietnam.
* **Human Capital:**
* First-generation university/college-educated individuals are very common.
* First-generation English, Chinese, or Korean speakers are gaining more access to markets outside Vietnam. (Korean is significant for FDI and cultural influence like movies/TV).
* **The Vietnamese Grit:** Many Vietnamese had very rough younger lives, and grit is a character trait they could win prizes for. It's seen in an extreme you don't find in other places. They just won't quit.
* **International Relations:** International business requires friendliness, and they choose to be friendly with everyone.

> Investing is about backing winners so that you can win with them.

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### Navigating Vin Group's Diverse Portfolio:

**1. Real Estate Market & VIC:**
The real estate market has struggled after the incident with Truong My Lan. A lot of stuff is empty and unsold. I have no clue when Vietnamese housing will top or bottom. While VIC is largely made up of real estate, I believe that with lower mortgage rates now, they will sell properties they have and don't want, moving debt and assets off the balance sheet.

**2. VinFast (VFS) & Xanh SM 🚕:**
* **Indonesian Expansion:** Watch for expansion into Indonesia – a massive, often underestimated market. (Unless it's someone who follows National GDP rankings globally and other macroeconomics.)
* **Path to Profitability:** VinFast just needs to reach a point where it's no longer cash-flow negative.
* **Long-Term Value:** The money will come from the Vision training they are doing.
* **Xanh SM (Taxi Service):**
* Now the largest taxi company in Vietnam.
* Creates organic demand (buy pressure) for VinFast cars.
* **A Better "Green" Product:** Unlike my experience in Canada where "green" options often felt forced and uncompetitive, Xanh SM is something you take because it's simply a *better product*. Smart, innovative people can make something "Green" AND better for the consumer. If you haven't tried it, just try it – it's better in every way (specifically the VinFast cars).
* **Scooter Critique:** The VinFast scooter needs a very simple change. The handle to hold onto the scooter located on the back is really bad. If I had one request, it would be to change that handle; it's awful. Put a large man in the front and try it.

**3. Vin Bus 🚌:**
Wow, the bus is the same quality as the newest buses I have seen in Canada, with one huge change: They are *extremely clean*. I have never been on a dirty VinBus.

**4. Vin Homes 🏡:**
Truly amazing, with great amenities. Lots of people run or play sports in the early morning. Mall access, VinBus access.

**5. Other Ventures:**
* **VinSchool & VinMec:** I've heard a lot of great stuff, but I haven't used them personally.
* **VinWonders Theme Park:** Also a lot of fun.
* **Vin Group Hotels:** Can also be really great.

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### My Investment Journey with VIC charted

**(Image 3: My Entry Point)**
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*So when did I actually get into Vin Group? In 2024.*

**(Image 4: Weekly MACD Signal)**
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*To me, this weekly MACD made it really obvious downside momentum was done. It was a matter of time to buy it up.*

* **Stop-Loss:** Having a stop-loss was also pretty obvious with the 2023 low.
* **Sentiment:** Sentiment was also really low.
* **Conviction:** Yet, I kept using the products of VIC subsidiary companies, thinking the only way I see this company not doing better is if it goes bankrupt. The products are definitely amazing.
* **Debt vs. Rates:** If you looked at the company balance sheets, debt was a risk, but Vietnam changed its rates, and eventually, most nations will change their rates.

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### Price Targets & Risk Management for VIC 📈📉

**(Image 5: Long-Term View & Current RSI)**
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* **Long-Term Target:** I think this Company could go well over **200k VND**.
* **Short-Term Caution:** Price going straight up is risky. With 2024 buying, you could have a narrow stop-loss. In 2025, with this price movement, a simple weekly reversion to the mean would be very rough.
* **Overbought RSI:** The RSI hit 97 – not a number that makes me think, "Wow, lots of room to grow immediately."

> For me, I want to hold enough stock that I am okay if, before going to 200k VND, we first go back to 60k VND.

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**Disclaimer:**
*The information provided in this post is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, market, or trading strategy does not guarantee future results. I am not a financial advisor. Please conduct your own thorough research and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. You are solely responsible for any investment decisions you make.*

7 天前

手動結束交易

Sold all and got out of this. Expect that it won't pass 100k VND. Down side I expect we don't go below 50k VND. Looking to re-enter between 50-70K VND this is still my favorite company in Vietnam.