Since January there hasn't been one reason for this thing to break out; NOT.ONE.
CPI coming in better than expected
PCE coming in as expected or better than
PPI Coming in as expected or better than
Powell talking a hawkish game but only raising 25bps
Even the ADP came in lower ...
With that being said for the sake of common sense now I'll get to the technicals.
Forming a bullish wedge here on the chart with bullish divergence on the RSI.
Hourly RSI over sold but that could just lead to a pop to the 20ma.
So that brings us back to this daily wedge pattern. sometimes patterns need Catalyst or "News" to breakout; I thought today's rate hike would be that Catalyst. Looking ahead , besides ECB rate decision tomorrow, and Fridays January unemployment I don't see a Catalyst coming in the next week to make this breakout.
Sometimes there is just a cycle correction like what happens after the summer months in early Sept and sometimes in mid to late Feb.
For now we wait an see , if vix loses support here, we head back. To 16.50 which is its yearly trendline support
CPI coming in better than expected
PCE coming in as expected or better than
PPI Coming in as expected or better than
Powell talking a hawkish game but only raising 25bps
Even the ADP came in lower ...
With that being said for the sake of common sense now I'll get to the technicals.
Forming a bullish wedge here on the chart with bullish divergence on the RSI.
Hourly RSI over sold but that could just lead to a pop to the 20ma.
So that brings us back to this daily wedge pattern. sometimes patterns need Catalyst or "News" to breakout; I thought today's rate hike would be that Catalyst. Looking ahead , besides ECB rate decision tomorrow, and Fridays January unemployment I don't see a Catalyst coming in the next week to make this breakout.
Sometimes there is just a cycle correction like what happens after the summer months in early Sept and sometimes in mid to late Feb.
For now we wait an see , if vix loses support here, we head back. To 16.50 which is its yearly trendline support
評論:
Formed a hammer here. Higher the market went , higher the vix went. Still needs to break over 20.00 and hold or this is just a dead cat bounce in order for equities to take a breather
