If World economy was good, ECB wouldn't think about putting into the market a European QE, nor would it plan any ABS or LTRO. ECB wouldn't lower the interest rate that low, even on the negative side in order to push the banks to give loans which bank do not give. They do prefer to earn money from the market through options, warrants, turbo calls etc. Unemployment statistics are not good in Europe and nor convincing in the US. No proper growth perspective that would create a certain stimulus for job creation. Despite this, the volatility index is very low, too low as the indicators show clearly, and above all, the indexes are really too high. Therefore, this overconfidence is just virtual with no ground, no reality. Long would be the only appears to be the safe side of the market.
Dear Will Wong, I think that there is an overconfidence in the market due to the QE3 of FEd the perspective of a European WE although we do not know yet the timing but since the eventual European QE and its possibilities have been announced, market will push hard and make a pressure on ECB to deliver .
Having said that, there must be a "legitimate" ground for ECB in order to convince EU memberstate to put into force a European QE that would take over FED's QE3.
Therefore at the level we are now, it very abnormal and I think that the good way to trade VIX is to enter at the lowest level of the index. Best.
Will_Wong
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What would be a good way to trade VIX? I bought a Jan 2015 UVXY $200 call for $1.
Having said that, there must be a "legitimate" ground for ECB in order to convince EU memberstate to put into force a European QE that would take over FED's QE3.
Therefore at the level we are now, it very abnormal and I think that the good way to trade VIX is to enter at the lowest level of the index. Best.