VIX: Risk On?

As of May 2, 2025, VIX has broken another support level, currently sitting at 22.63 with a -1.61% drop on the 4H chart. It is trading near a demand zone (22.00–22.34), but price action shows no bullish conviction. With multiple Break of Structure (BoS) events to the downside and no significant bullish order blocks holding, volatility appears to be compressing further.

Meanwhile, IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) has broken out of a bull flag and reclaimed the 9EMA and anchored VWAP bands from the April decline. It's up 2.29% on the day and targeting resistance zones between 201.21 and 212.33.

🧠 **Interpretation**:
- Market sentiment shifting risk-on.
- Volatility compression aligned with bullish equity breakout.
- Expect continued downside in VIX unless geopolitical/fundamental catalysts spike fear.

🎯 **VIX Bearish Probability: 65%**
📌 Watch zones: 21.50 for next liquidity grab, 27–30 zone for potential mean reversion if market reverses.

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