VIX: Minor 1

2023年8月1日

Recently heard an interview with Mark Newton where he predicted a 30-52% rise in the VIX in August. These targets are Red and Green. I think it could get higher, but agree that this target range is solid bet.
Best, CUZ

2023年8月4日

註釋

Well, we are off. The Wizard maikisch said, EOD in the trading room, we could get a gap down in futures Sunday night. I had actually tweaked my vix chart, for some reason, but wow, UNDO, bc this is looking very good, like we are aligned for this action in both indices, as in, my VIX and ES counts are now identical, except inverted, obviously. I will post an ES chart, next week, if this does continue to play out. For context, I am -5 MES Dec23/Mar24(-3)/Jun24, and -2 MNQ Dec23/Mar24. This is what I want to carry off the top and hedge against at the bottoms of the 1s 3s & 5s, through next summer. I had actually hedged about half around 4493.75, but closed all longs, after ES moved back over 4500 and I read the GAP post in the trading room.

Simply put, the ES pattern has begun to reveal itself, especially today, as perhaps, the ((1))-((2))/(1)-(2) that is ideal for a big move down.

2023年8月7日

註釋

We have retraced past the .382 of this subminuette i. I noticed some traders closed when we breached the perceived f4 of one lesser degree, BUT I am counting this retrace as a ii of (iii), which remains standard in this range all the way to the .618-.786. I am not actively trading the VIX, but I did add -1 to my MES position on the DEC contract, this morning.

2023年8月7日

註釋

Looking at the ES chart, there is a way to count the micro ((B)) that puts that spike at the 1.0, basically as a bullish runner. This ii is getting drawn out further than expected, but looks just right as far as fibs go and the a/c=1.0. VIX may hold the clues, bc it looks a lot cleaner. I think we reverse, here, for our 3 of (3) of ((3)) of iii of (iii) of ((iii)).

2023年8月8日

註釋

Got one more high, yesterday after cash market close. Appear to have reversed, now but need to breach and sustain under 4493.25. My downside target for ES under 4493.25 is 4343/4327.75 to conclude Minor 1 of Intermediate (1). If we get this breach, I will update.

2023年8月10日

註釋

I will undoubtedly have to update my count, Micro, and submicro level, but the Minuette (iii) still stands as the next likely move. A tag of 14.57 would invalidate this count, as far as I can tell. However, looking at ES crashing, again, the next breach of 4478.25/4482 should not return for at least 2 weeks, if this is the correct count. Targets remain the same, with max I can see of 4298 for Minor 1 in ES, and Mid 20s for VIX.

2023年8月11日

註釋

It appears we are getting the minuscule 2. Internal Structure "pure wave" ABC, just shy of its A/C 1.0 @ about 4469.

2023年8月11日

註釋

But, it is still Micro/submicro 2. 1.618 of AC at 4482.50.

2023年8月15日

註釋

Micro/Submicro 1s2 appear to have completed, as of this morning. I am looking for a miniscule retrace to maybe 15200 and 4480 on the Sept contracts. That should be about where we start our 3. I traded for some profit, this morning, so I am already back in (-7 MES (Dec/Mar/Jun) -2 MNQ(Dec/Mar), but my goal is to get this off the top, so I am not really worried about intermittent draw down, but use your judgement. Geronimo!

2023年8月15日

註釋

This A-B pattern is targeting about 4475, if we continue correction, upward, from here, right around the .50, which is to where the submicro 1 corrected.

2023年8月15日

註釋

I just realized that the VIX primary wave was drawn and labeled as a white cycle wave and that the cycle wave was drawn and labeled as a red supercycle. I have corrected this to Red Primary and White Cycle for future posts. Seafoam has been adjusted to supercycle from grand supercycle.

2023年8月15日

註釋

Now looking for ES rejection at 4481.50. Tag and reverse hard, I will sell one more.

Big reversal here could invalidate this whole thing, so until next time...

Best,

Cuz

2023年8月17日

註釋

Quick note on VIX (long still constructive/upside pattern intact): Targeting 18.30 on VIX, then pull back to 17.10, low as about 16.86, holding which low would indicate whether we have completed wave 3. Today is make or break for this move. As I am counting, we are already dealing with some unorthodox b-waves in the impulsive ES count, so let's see what happens, this morning. If VIX moves as described, above, and if we then move back over 18.14, we should hold there for 2-3 weeks, ideally, before beginning our Minor 2.

2023年8月18日

註釋

youtube.com/watch?v=iYYRH4apXDo

2023年8月18日

註釋

17.82 is .236, .236 was breached in ES, and 17.19 is .382, which should not be touched.

2023年8月18日

註釋

Point of impulsivity is about 17.45/47

2023年8月19日

註釋

Well, in ES we got a 1 point poke above the .382 retracement of the assumed wave 3 @ 4395 in the process of breaching its supposed 4 of one lesser degree. Ironically, this was the wave 4 retrace immediately after breaching the Minor 4@ 4368.50...next move up. No idea which is more significant, academically, but I would argue (and continue to trade) as if the 18.50 pt downside breach of Minor, term support is more telling than a 1.0 pt breach of a minuscule or sub micro (4), when the line of impulsivity was respected and sentiment is in the early stages of shifting. Keep in mind, a wave 1 does not have to become or remain impulsive in modern EWT practice. What we currently observe, therefore, is bearish. We can see, Vix action mirrored ES in its own way, by overlapping otw up and getting sloppy fib support. Remember: This is only Minor 1 of Intermediate (1). It’s going to be sloppy as traders accelerate, wise-up, exit early, or exit late.

I will stop into vix call via Uvxy at the 18.07 area as I expect continuation for 15%, form here.

2023年8月21日

註釋

The Wizard is saying we are in Minute ((iv)), which should terminate in this range. Even if it is Minuette, which magnitude alone seems to dictate it is, this would mean that a move down from here may run through today, and through tomorrow and based on wave parity btw Minute 1-2 and Minuette 1-2, targets should be similar.

If we get to 4335, I will close 7 December short contracts and open 3 Dec long to cover my -3 March, leaving June net short -2. Will also close MNQ December contract and may cover March, on the way back up, perhaps at the bottom of Minute ((b)), if it were. If ES moves down, we could see our upper VIX target hit, or nearly hit. Anything in the 20s, probably a good exit to look for a Minor retrace into EOM. I plan to observe, throughout today and tomorrow with eyes to close &/or cover EOD or next open for a gap down that should recover.

2023年8月23日

註釋

I now consider Minor 1 either complete, or to complete with one more high. Hopefully, the parameters were helpful. NVDA should be a sell the news event, either way earnings go. I only liquidated SOME of my shorts, and made 4 k hedging this month. Still short, -5 dec, -3 mar, -2 jun on MES, and short mnq -1 dec, -1 mar.
I give this post a C-, because I appear to have over estimated the sentiment shift. It is occurring slowly.