Ta on volatility is hard.

While flipping through charts, I especially enjoying hitting the indexes around big moves, and look for “warning signs” that have occurred in the past before/after other ‘historic moves”.

What have I found? A whole bunch of nothing. More or less speculation. Today, however on SPY, I noticed a parallel between today’s precipitous drop and February’s Covid drop.

Go to the drop on spy daily and notice the gap down. A lot of space between close and open. I challenge you to find another gap down between days as large (no wick or candle). Now, look at today’s gap down.

Further, on the same dates, draw your attention to the gap UP on VIX in February. -no wick or candle- again, I challenge to find a comparable gap up on that daily... up until today.

VIX gapped up again, in common fashion. Anytime VIX starts moving, a seasoned trader puts his hand on his gun. He smells bear meat