VTC, New upward-trending channel

2017年10月16日

We have a new upward-trending channel, which VTC tends to follow pretty well historically, finally having arisen from the fomo-inducing BTC alt-crash. Nonetheless, we are still overall in a downward-trending channel that needs to be broken to the top. We've crossed the clouds on several time intervals, but as VTC is known to do, I'm expecting a pullback of some sort before another run given we're at the top of this channel. That doesn't preclude a total breakout from this channel, which is absolutely a possibility.We have a new upward-trending channel, which VTC tends to follow pretty well historically, finally having arisen from the fomo-inducing BTC alt-crash. Nonetheless, we are still overall in a downward-trending channel that needs to be broken to the top. We've crossed the clouds on several time intervals, but as VTC is known to do, I'm expecting a pullback of some sort before another run given we're at the top of this channel. That doesn't preclude a total breakout from this channel, which is absolutely a possibility.

Here is an analysis of the longer term view I am looking at for resistance/support breaks.

2017年10月16日

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In addition, that down-trending channel can also be drawn as a descending wedge if you draw the lines a _bit_ differently. That said, I've already had two descending wedge formations I was considering broken in the past few days, so I'm a little skeptical of them because it doesn't really seem like a high possibility at this point, but depending on BTC and the run-up to October 25th, it's definitely a possibility to look for, in which case you could set targets as low as ~18-21.

2017年10月16日

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2017年10月16日

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I publish this chart elsewhere, but just as an update, there's now a nice ascending triangle forming on the 15-min chart that could provide some momentum for an upward breakthrough of some of those resistance lines I mentioned earlier. I'll be watching this pretty closely (as well as the volume) to see which way we break as this will probably provide a lot of usable information with regard to the rest of the charts and trends I publisehed earlier.

2017年10月16日

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I realize you can't see it in the chart, but this triangle lies just below the top of that resistance channel. So if it breaks upward with the right amount of volume and momentum, we will have broken through that downward trend.

2017年10月16日

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So, this version of the ascending triangle has broken, but you can re-draw it using slightly different draw-throughs of the wicks (which is always the issue, of course), in which it's still valid. I'm not really sure here. Doesn't seem like there's anything very strong going on here. I feel pretty "meh" about it.

2017年10月17日

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The triangle definitely broke out downwards, so I expect, for the time being at least, a continuity of upward resistance; in other words, we may still be in a downtrend despite the local ATH. (This is kind of confusing since the downtrend is actually due to BTC's surge. It might be better for some of these charts to be read vs $ instead of BTC to get a better idea of the actual trend; I may work that up...)