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Good fundemental? I have been trading for a long time and I already see it there is no such a world that we can analysis fundementals because there are datas which effect prices and more then we can handle, also it is close to impossible to get correct information on correct time, just others opinion. For example last weekend it was news (after sharp fall on price so it was end of price movement) "Wheat harvest very good!" yesterday it was news "EU wheat price climb based on quality concern!" it goes like that. No I am not offereng fundemental but close to fundemental.
It is COT analysis and based on searching trends on Hedgers net positions. Also I use RSI on net hedgers positions but RSI based on long side of the hedgers position which is producer side of the hedgers also mostly big part of the positions. Many Traders beleive that speculators driving market but after 3 years fallow my own chart I clearly see that speculators try to follow trends if there is a chance they enter, for example after 3 years down trend broken (as in sugar ) whatever I think it is not place to discuss strategy I must write only about ide .
I wanted to add a chart which is on my excell file but it is look like not possible. Okay then that's all.
Do not forget we are handling probabilities so non of strategy can give gurantee result on one signal thats why we have money management and stop loss.
Buy Wheat Futures 432 Stop loss 1 full margin money management %1 of total capital (so to trade 1 contract of wheat futures 1540$ margin you should have 154.000$ in your account and when you lost %100 of margin which means 402 should be stop loss) this is important.
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