Traders,
I just posted a chart illustrating the persistent increase in
XAUUSD strength relative to 
XAGUSD (See original chart and analysis here: tradingview.com/v/dHewwmO7/ , as well as subsequent comments here: tradingview.com/v/w6G3CwDJ/ ).
XAUUSD vs. XAGUSD:
This strengthening of Gold relative to Silver might appear counter-intuitive, considering that the yellow metal has been under pressure recently, yielding to this BEARISH analysis, where it is expected to continue a downward course on a pure technical basis - See analysis and forecasting here: tradingview.com/v/KgNpTMbq/ .
XAUUSD ON ITS OWN:
Looking atXAUUSD alone, the technical landscape calls for a high-probability rally at the H4 scale. While this is a new chart without any prior target, I won't take credit for defining the current (YELLOW) level as a high-probability target, since it already occurred. However, I can say with some confidence that any protracted downward pressure will require a relief rallying to levels capped by the Fibonacci values depicted in the chart, with green, yellow and red representing a decreasing range of probability that price would attain these values. So, expect a higher probability of reversal to 19.754 (representing a minor Fibonacci value (1.000 - 0.786 = 0.214).
The other two values (20.308 at 38.2% and 20.653 at 61.8% retracements are self-explanatory, being significant Fib levels, widely accepted across financial markets).
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
The dominant pattern at this point remains arguable. A Bullish Bat comes to sight, as well as a potential Bullish Alternate Bat. However, their respective Point-B lacks the depth at 20.653.
Conversely, a Shark could win our consideration here, on the basis of the X-A-B conditions met at the apex of the pattern (i.e.: AB < 1.618), while a Zero-X 1.131 extension would fit the predictive model that defined TG-Lo = 18.435 today.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
As just defined, model just define an extremely LOW probability of reaching TG-Lo = 18.435 , but if it did so, this level would act as a strong reversal springboard. A colored arrow of fading quality is used to reflect the fading probability of this bearish scenario.
OVERALL: An abysmal target would support prior analysis ofXAUUSD vs. XAGUSD rising. While price consolidates at current implied target, I will leave the directional indicator as "Neutral" until a direction pronounces itself.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
--------------
Twitter: 4xForecaster
-------------
I just posted a chart illustrating the persistent increase in
XAUUSD strength relative to XAGUSD (See original chart and analysis here: tradingview.com/v/dHewwmO7/ , as well as subsequent comments here: tradingview.com/v/w6G3CwDJ/ ). XAUUSD vs. XAGUSD: This strengthening of Gold relative to Silver might appear counter-intuitive, considering that the yellow metal has been under pressure recently, yielding to this BEARISH analysis, where it is expected to continue a downward course on a pure technical basis - See analysis and forecasting here: tradingview.com/v/KgNpTMbq/ .
XAUUSD ON ITS OWN:Looking at
XAUUSD alone, the technical landscape calls for a high-probability rally at the H4 scale. While this is a new chart without any prior target, I won't take credit for defining the current (YELLOW) level as a high-probability target, since it already occurred. However, I can say with some confidence that any protracted downward pressure will require a relief rallying to levels capped by the Fibonacci values depicted in the chart, with green, yellow and red representing a decreasing range of probability that price would attain these values. So, expect a higher probability of reversal to 19.754 (representing a minor Fibonacci value (1.000 - 0.786 = 0.214).The other two values (20.308 at 38.2% and 20.653 at 61.8% retracements are self-explanatory, being significant Fib levels, widely accepted across financial markets).
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
The dominant pattern at this point remains arguable. A Bullish Bat comes to sight, as well as a potential Bullish Alternate Bat. However, their respective Point-B lacks the depth at 20.653.
Conversely, a Shark could win our consideration here, on the basis of the X-A-B conditions met at the apex of the pattern (i.e.: AB < 1.618), while a Zero-X 1.131 extension would fit the predictive model that defined TG-Lo = 18.435 today.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
As just defined, model just define an extremely LOW probability of reaching TG-Lo = 18.435 , but if it did so, this level would act as a strong reversal springboard. A colored arrow of fading quality is used to reflect the fading probability of this bearish scenario.
OVERALL: An abysmal target would support prior analysis of
XAUUSD vs. XAGUSD rising. While price consolidates at current implied target, I will leave the directional indicator as "Neutral" until a direction pronounces itself.Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Denver, Colorado - USA
--------------
Twitter: 4xForecaster
-------------
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